[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 October 21 issued 2331 UT on 09 Oct 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 10 10:31:04 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 OCTOBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 OCTOBER - 12 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Oct: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 0638UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Oct: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate on UT day 09 October, with
one M-class flare from active region AR2882. The flare peaked
at 09/0638 UT with a peak intensity of M1.6. It triggered a full-halo
CME first observed in LASCO C2 imagery starting at 09/0712 UTC.
The CME is expected to arrive at Earth on UT day 11 October at
around 1700 UT +/- 6 hours. In addition, a possible filament
eruption was observed in SDO304 imagery starting at 09/1748 UT
centered at N20W30. This event is being further analysed to determine
if it has triggered a CME. Low to moderate solar activity is
expected for UT days 10-12 October with a slight chance of low
M-class flares. On UT day 09 October, the solar wind speed was
near its nominal level, varying between 280 km/s and 350 km/s.
The total IMF (Bt) varied from 2 nT to 7 nT, and the north-south
IMF (Bz) component range was +3/-5 nT. IMF(Bz) was mostly southward
throughout the UT day. The solar wind speed is expected to be
mostly near its nominal levels today, UT day 10 October. From
UT day 11 October, the solar wind speed is expected to reach
moderate to high levels in response to the arrival of the 09
October CME combined with effects from an equatorial coronal
hole reaching geoeffective location on the solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 11102101
Cocos Island 1 01102000
Darwin 2 11102101
Townsville 3 21002111
Learmonth 3 12102102
Alice Springs 2 11102001
Gingin 3 11102111
Canberra 1 010020--
Hobart 2 11002101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Oct :
Macquarie Island 1 00012000
Casey 7 23222121
Mawson 12 42122243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 2110 2121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Oct 5 Quiet
11 Oct 40 Minor Storm
12 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region
were quiet on UT day 09 October. In the Antarctic region the
geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled. Mostly
quiet global geomagnetic conditions with possible unsettled periods
are expected for today, 10 October. On UT day 11 October, the
geomagnetic conditions are expected to reach minor storm level
with a chance of major storms. This is in response to the possible
arrival of the 09 October CME combined with effects from an equatorial
coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal
11 Oct Fair Fair-poor Poor
12 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were normal on 09 October.
Normal HF conditions are expected for 10 October. Fair to poor
conditions are expected on UT day 11 and 12 Oct. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible for the next 3 UT days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Oct 21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data .
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 24
Oct 29
Nov 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Oct 20 Near predicted monthly values
11 Oct 20 Near predicted monthly values
12 Oct 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 09 October were
mostly near predicted monthly values. MUFs are likely to be mostly
near predicted monthly values on UT days 10-11 October. MUFs
are expected to be depressed on UT day 12 Oct, in response to
the forecasted disturbed geomagnetic conditions. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible for the next 3 UT days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Oct
Speed: 288 km/sec Density: 9.6 p/cc Temp: 29700 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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