[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 October 21 issued 2331 UT on 07 Oct 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 8 10:31:05 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 OCTOBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 OCTOBER - 10 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Oct: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Oct 09 Oct 10 Oct
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 86/29 86/29 84/26
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 07 October. Region
2882 produced a C5.5 flare that peaked at 07/0246 UT. There is
currently one numbered sunspot region on the solar disk (2882
N16E32 beta-gamma Dho at 2255 UT/07 October) visible from the
Earth side. Very low to low solar activity is expected for UT
days 08 to 10 October. No Earth directed CMEs have been observed
in the last 24 hours. On UT day 07 October, the solar wind speed
varied mostly between 300 and 320 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) varied
from 3 to 10 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) component range
was +10/-7 nT. Bz was mostly southward during the UT day. The
solar wind speed is expected to be mostly near its nominal levels
for the next three UT days, 08 to 10 October.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 22201200
Cocos Island 3 22200200
Darwin 4 22201201
Townsville 4 22211110
Learmonth 3 22101201
Alice Springs 3 21201200
Gingin 4 11202301
Canberra 2 21101200
Hobart 3 12102210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Oct :
Macquarie Island 5 11023300
Casey 8 33321111
Mawson 11 22221334
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 9 1123 3331
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Oct 7 Quiet with the possibility of some unsettled
periods
09 Oct 7 Quiet with the possibility of some unsettled
periods
10 Oct 7 Quiet with the possibility of some unsettled
periods
COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region
were quiet on UT day 07 October. In the Antarctic region the
geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled with one
active period. Mostly quiet to unsettled global geomagnetic conditions
may be expected for the next three UT days, 08 to 10 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal
09 Oct Normal Normal Normal
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were normal on 07 October.
Normal HF conditions are expected for the next three UT days,
08 to 10 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Oct 27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 24
Oct 29
Nov 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Oct 28 Near predicted monthly values
09 Oct 28 Near predicted monthly values
10 Oct 28 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 07 October were
mostly near predicted monthly values with periods of minor to
mild enhancements. MUFs are likely to be mostly near predicted
monthly values on UT days 08 to 10 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Oct
Speed: 320 km/sec Density: 20.0 p/cc Temp: 23700 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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