[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 October 21 issued 2331 UT on 06 Oct 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 7 10:31:14 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 OCTOBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 OCTOBER - 09 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Oct:  85/27


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Oct             08 Oct             09 Oct
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    82/23              82/23              82/23

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 06 October. There 
are currently two numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk 
(2880 N31W43 Alpha Hrx, N2882 N16E47 Beta Cko at 2205 UT/06 October) 
visible from the Earth side. Very low to low solar activity is 
expected for UT days 07 to 09 October. No Earth directed CMEs 
have been observed in the last 24 hours. On UT day 06 October, 
the solar wind speed varied between 305 and 335 km/s, the total 
IMF (Bt) varied from 2 to 12 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) 
component range was +9/-10 nT. Bz was mostly southward during 
the UT day. The solar wind speed is expected to be mostly near 
its nominal levels for the next three UT days, 07 to 09 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 06 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   12222221
      Cocos Island         6   22222220
      Darwin               5   12122211
      Townsville           7   22223221
      Learmonth            5   12122221
      Alice Springs        5   02222221
      Gingin               5   12122221
      Canberra             5   02132220
      Hobart               7   12233220    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Oct :
      Macquarie Island    16   02255320
      Casey                9   23332221
      Mawson              14   33123441

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   3201 1011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Oct     7    Quiet with the possibility of some unsettled 
                periods
08 Oct     7    Quiet with the possibility of some unsettled 
                periods
09 Oct     7    Quiet with the possibility of some unsettled 
                periods

COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions in the Australian regions 
were predominantly quiet on UT day 06 October. In the Antarctic 
region the geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled 
with two active and two minor storm periods. Mostly quiet to 
unsettled global geomagnetic conditions may be expected for the 
next three UT days, 07 to 09 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were normal on 06 October. 
Normal HF conditions are expected for the next three UT days, 
07 to 09 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Oct    38

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      24
Oct      29
Nov      33

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Oct    35    Near predicted monthly values
08 Oct    35    Near predicted monthly values
09 Oct    35    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 06 October were 
mostly near predicted monthly values with periods of minor to 
moderate enhancements. MUFs are likely to be mostly near predicted 
monthly values on UT days 07 to 09 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.2E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A8.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Oct
Speed: 301 km/sec  Density:    7.7 p/cc  Temp:    20800 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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