[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 October 21 issued 2330 UT on 05 Oct 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 6 10:30:57 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 OCTOBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 OCTOBER - 08 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Oct: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Oct 07 Oct 08 Oct
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 84/26 84/26
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 05 October. There
are currently two numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk
(2880 N29W32 Cro, N2882 N16E60 Cao at 2245 UT/05 October) visible
from the earth side. Very low to low solar activity is expected
for UT days 06 to 08 October. No Earth directed CMEs have been
observed in the last 24 hours. On UT day 05 October, solar wind
parameters were near background levels. The solar wind speed
varied between 285 and 325 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) varied from
3 to 6 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) component range was +4/-4
nT. Bz was mostly weakly southward during the UT day. The solar
wind speed is expected to be mostly near its nominal levels for
the next three UT days, 06 to 08 October.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 11012001
Cocos Island 2 11102000
Darwin 2 12012001
Townsville 3 22012001
Learmonth 3 11103000
Alice Springs 2 11002001
Gingin 2 11002100
Canberra 2 11012001
Hobart 3 02112101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Oct :
Macquarie Island 2 11112000
Casey 5 23112111
Mawson 6 22102232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 2211 1102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Oct 5 Quiet
07 Oct 5 Quiet
08 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions in the Australian and the
Antarctic regions were predominantly quiet on UT day 05 October.
Mostly quiet global geomagnetic conditions may be expected for
the next three UT days, 06 to 08 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were normal on 05 October.
Normal HF conditions are expected for the next three UT days,
06 to 07 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Oct 31
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 24
Oct 29
Nov 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Oct 30 Near predicted monthly values
07 Oct 30 Near predicted monthly values
08 Oct 30 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 05 October were
mostly near predicted monthly values. MUFs are likely to be mostly
near predicted monthly values on UT days 06 to 08 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Oct
Speed: 347 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 43400 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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