[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 November 21 issued 2330 UT on 12 Nov 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 13 10:30:56 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 NOVEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 NOVEMBER - 15 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Nov:  83/24


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Nov             14 Nov             15 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    83/24              81/22              81/22

COMMENT: On UT day 12 November, solar activity was very low. 
There are currently three numbered regions on the visible disk: 
2893, 2894 and 2895. Solar activity is expected to be very low 
on 13-15 November with a slight chance of C-class flares. No 
Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph 
data. On UT day 12 November, the solar wind speed was near its 
nominal levels, varying between 340 and 410 km/s. The total IMF 
(Bt) was around 5-7 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) component 
range was mostly +/-5 nT. Solar wind speed is expected to be 
mostly near background levels on UT days 13-15 November. Slightly 
enhanced solar wind speed may be observed on 13 November due 
to week coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 12 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   11000000
      Cocos Island         0   11000000
      Darwin               1   21000000
      Townsville           1   11000010
      Learmonth            1   11000001
      Alice Springs        0   11000000
      Gingin               1   11100001
      Canberra             1   11000010
      Hobart               2   12100010    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     0   11000000
      Casey               13   35421111
      Mawson               9   34211203

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   0001 2201     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled
14 Nov     7    Quiet
15 Nov     7    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 12 November, geomagnetic conditions in the 
Australian region were mostly at quiet levels. Isolated active 
and storm levels were observed in the Antarctic region. Conditions 
are expected to be mostly at quiet levels on 13-15 November. 
Unsettled periods may be observed on 13 November due to weak 
coronal hole effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
15 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Moderately depressed MUFs may be observed on 13 November 
in the Southern hemisphere during local day.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Nov    -7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      18
Nov      32
Dec      35

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Nov    -5    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
14 Nov     0    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
15 Nov     5    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 34 was issued on 12 November 
and is current for 13 Nov only. MUFs in the Australian region 
on UT day 12 November were mostly moderately depressed. MUFs 
are expected to continue recovering to the monthly predicted 
values over the next three UT days, 13-15 November. Mildly to 
moderately depressed MUFs may be observed on 13-14 November.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Nov
Speed: 388 km/sec  Density:    7.8 p/cc  Temp:   103000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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