[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 November 21 issued 2330 UT on 11 Nov 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 12 10:30:56 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 NOVEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 NOVEMBER - 14 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Nov: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 86/29 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: On UT day 11 November, solar activity was very low.
There are currently three numbered regions on the visible disk;
2893, 2894 and 2895. Regions 2893 and 2894 are simple(alpha magnetic
class) and remained stable while region 2895 (beta magnetic class)
showed further decay. Solar activity is expected to be very low
on 12-14 November with a slight chance of C-class flares. No
Earth directed CMEs observed in the available satellite imagery.
On UT day 11 November, the solar wind speed varied between 380
Km/s and 400 Km/s. The total IMF (Bt) range was 3-6 nT and the
north-south IMF (Bz) component range was +/-4 nT with a prolonger
southward orientation between 11/0530-1200UT. Solar wind speed
is expected to be near background to slightly enhanced levels
on UT days 12-14 November due to week coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 11123111
Cocos Island 3 11111111
Darwin 4 10123111
Townsville 5 21123111
Learmonth 6 20123212
Alice Springs 5 11123111
Gingin 6 21123112
Canberra 4 11123110
Hobart 4 10123111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Nov :
Macquarie Island 4 00024000
Casey 9 33223112
Mawson 4 21122101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 18 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 3122 1000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Nov 5 Quiet
13 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Nov 7 Mostly quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 11 November, geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian region were mostly at quiet levels with one unsettled
period around 11/12UT. This was in response to a prolonged southward
Bz period between 11/0530-1200UT. Isolated active levels were
observed in the Antarctic region. Conditions are expected to
be mostly at quiet levels on UT days 12-14 November. Possible
unsettled periods may be observed on 13 November due to weak
coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
13 Nov Normal Normal Normal
14 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF propagation conditions may be observed
today, 12 November. Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are
expected on UT days, 13-14 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Nov -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 18
Nov 32
Dec 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Nov 10 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
13 Nov 20 Near predicted monthly values
14 Nov 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 11 November
were near monthly predicted values to moderately depressed. MUFs
are expected to continue recovery to near monthly predicted values
over the next three UT days, 12-14 November. Mildly depressed
MUFs may be observed today, 12 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Nov
Speed: 430 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 117000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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