[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 May 21 issued 2330 UT on 11 May 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 12 09:30:08 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 MAY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 12 MAY - 14 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 May: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 May 13 May 14 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 11 May with several
weak B-class flares. There are currently two active regions on
the visible disk of the Sun, AR2822 (Dai-BetaGamma) and AR2823
(Cao-Beta). There were no Earth directed CMEs in the available
coronagraph images. Solar activity is expected to be low for
the next three UT days 12-14 May. On UT day 11 May, the solar
wind speed range was 320-360 km/s. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 4 nT
and the north-south component of IMF (Bz) range was +/-3 nT.
The solar wind speed is expected to be near background levels
initially on UT day 12 May. However an equatorial coronal hole
will move into geoeffective position from late on UT day 12 May,
elevating the solar wind speed to slightly enhanced levels through
UT days 13-14 May. It is also possible that the 9 May CME from
a DSF could arrive at Earth from late on UT day 12 May, increasing
the solar wind speed even further to moderately enhanced levels
through UT days 13-14 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 May : A K
Australian Region 0 10100000
Cocos Island 1 10110000
Darwin 1 20100000
Townsville 1 11100000
Learmonth 1 20100000
Alice Springs 0 10100000
Gingin 0 10000000
Canberra 0 10000000
Hobart 0 00000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 2 21200000
Mawson 5 22200023
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 May : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 6 2211 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 May 12 Quiet to active with possible minor storms and
a small chance of a major storm
13 May 20 Unsettled to active with possible minor storms
and a small chance of a major storm
14 May 8 Mostly quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian and Antarctic
region were quiet on UT day 11 May. Global geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be quiet to unsettled with possible active periods
on UT day 12 May, as an equatorial coronal hole reaches geoeffective
position late in the day. Also it is possible that the 9 May
DSF CME could impact Earth late on UT day 12 May, increasing
geomagnetic activity even further from unsettled to active levels
with the chance of G1 minor storms and a small chance of a G2
major storm.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
14 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT day 12 May. Mild to moderate depressions in HF propagation
conditions are possible on UT days 13-14 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 May 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 12
May 21
Jun 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 May 10 Near predicted monthly values
13 May 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
14 May 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 11 May were
mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild to moderate
depressions. There were also some mild to moderate enhancements
in the South Australian and Antarctic regions. In the Australian
region, MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values on UT day 12 May. Then mild to moderate MUF depressions
are possible on UT days 13-14 May due to the expected increase
in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 May
Speed: 343 km/sec Density: 10.0 p/cc Temp: 144000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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