[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 May 21 issued 2330 UT on 10 May 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 11 09:30:07 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 MAY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 11 MAY - 13 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 May: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 May 12 May 13 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 77/16 77/16 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 10 May with just
a few B-class flares. There are currently two active regions
on the visible disk of the Sun, AR2822 (Dki-BetaGamma) and AR2823
(Cao-Beta). There were no Earth directed CMEs in the available
coronagraph images. Solar activity is expected to be low for
the next three UT days 11-13 May, with a remote chance of M-class
flares. On UT day 10 May, the solar wind speed range was 310-380
km/s. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 12 nT and the north-south component
of IMF (Bz) range was +11/-5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to stay near background levels on UT days 11-12 May. However
an equatorial coronal hole will move into geoeffective position
on UT day 13 May elevating the solar wind speed to slightly enhanced
levels. There is also a possibility that the 9 May CME from a
DSF could arrive at Earth on 13 May increasing the solar wind
speed even further to moderately enhanced levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 10 May : A K
Australian Region 5 13221111
Cocos Island 3 12111111
Darwin 5 23111111
Townsville 6 23221111
Learmonth 6 23211122
Alice Springs 6 13221121
Gingin 6 22221221
Canberra 4 12121210
Hobart 3 02121210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 May :
Macquarie Island 3 02022100
Casey 7 23221122
Mawson 21 13112365
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 May : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 2 0000 1102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 May 7 Quiet to Unsettled
12 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
13 May 12 Quiet to unsettled with possible active to minor
storm periods
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region ere
quiet to unsettled on UT day 10 May. In the Antarctic region,
quiet to unsettled levels were observed with one storm period.
Mostly quiet global geomagnetic conditions are expected with
a chance of isolated unsettled periods on UT days 11-12 May.
Mostly unsettled conditions are expected on 13 May as an small
equatorial coronal hole moves into geoeffective position. However
active to minor storm levels may occur if the 9 May DSF CME arrives.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 11-13 May with possible mild depressions. Fadeouts
are possible in the sunlit regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 May 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 12
May 21
Jun 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 May 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
12 May 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
13 May 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 13 was issued on 8
May and is current for 9-11 May. MUFs in the Australian region
on UT day 10 May were mostly near predicted monthly values with
some moderate depressions during the local day. There were also
some moderate enhancements in the South Australian and Antarctic
regions during the local night. In the Australian region, MUFs
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT
days 11-13 May with possible mild depressions. Fadeouts are possible
in the sunlit regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 May
Speed: 325 km/sec Density: 9.2 p/cc Temp: 42400 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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