[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 May 21 issued 2330 UT on 09 May 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 10 09:30:08 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 MAY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 10 MAY - 12 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 May: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 May 11 May 12 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 77/16 77/16 79/19
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 9 May due to two C-class
flares from active region 2822. The largest flare was C4.0 which
peaked at 09/1358. A disappearing filament was observed at the
beginning of UT day 9 May in the southeast quadrant. This event
seems to be associated with a CME observed in STEREO-A images
since 9/1123 UT. A partial halo CME was observed in STEREO-A
images after 9/15:38. Preliminary analysis shows that the 2nd
CME could be geoeffective. Further analysis for the two CMEs
will be completed when more images will be available. Solar activity
is expected to be low to moderate for the next three UT days,
10-12 May, with a chance of M-class flares. On UT day 9 May,
the solar wind speed was near its nominal levels, 300-340 km/s.
The IMF (Bt) peaked at 8 nT and the north-south component of
IMF (Bz) range was +8/-4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to stay near its background levels on UT days 10-11 May. Some
enhancements are possible on 12 May due to coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 May : A K
Australian Region 1 01000101
Cocos Island 0 00000001
Darwin 1 01110101
Townsville 2 01111101
Learmonth 1 01110101
Alice Springs 1 01000101
Gingin 0 1000010-
Canberra 0 01000100
Hobart 0 00001100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 May :
Macquarie Island 0 0000----
Casey 1 02100100
Mawson 2 11200110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 2 1001 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 May 7 Quiet
11 May 7 Quiet
12 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian and Antarctic
regions were quiet on UT day 9 May. Mostly quiet global geomagnetic
conditions are expected on UT days 10-11 May and quiet to unsettled
on 12 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 10-12 May. Fadeouts are possible in the sunlit regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 May 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 12
May 21
Jun 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 May 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
11 May 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
12 May 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 13 was issued on 8
May and is current for 9-11 May. MUFs in the Australian region
on UT day 9 May were mostly mildly depressed. In the Australian
region, MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values on UT days 10-12 May with possible mild depressions. Fadeouts
are possible in the sunlit regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 May
Speed: 317 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 60200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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