[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 May 21 issued 2330 UT on 08 May 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 9 09:30:07 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 MAY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 09 MAY - 11 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 May: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 May 10 May 11 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 77/16 77/16
COMMENT: Solar activity was at low to moderate levels on UT day
8 May due to several B-class flares and two C-class flares, all
from active region 2822. The largest flare was C8.6 which peaked
at 08/1845. AR2822 is currently located at N17E63 and moving
towards the solar center. At the time of writing this report,
LASCO coronagraph images associated with the C-class flares were
not available to ascertain if the flares have triggered a CME.
Based on the location of the source region, any CME if triggered
would not impact the Earth. Solar activity is expected to be
low to moderate for the next three UT days, 9-11 May, with a
chance of more C-class flares and isolated chance of M-class
flares. On UT day 8 May, the solar wind speed was near its background
levels, mostly steady near 320 km/s. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 5
nT and the north-south component of IMF (Bz) range was +3/-4
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to stay near its background
levels on UT days 9-11 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 May : A K
Australian Region 1 10011000
Cocos Island 2 30010000
Darwin 1 01110001
Townsville 2 11111011
Learmonth 1 10111000
Alice Springs 0 10001000
Gingin 1 10011000
Canberra 0 00010000
Hobart 1 00021000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 May :
Macquarie Island 1 00021000
Casey 3 13210000
Mawson 2 11101111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 May 7 Quiet
10 May 7 Quiet
11 May 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian and Antarctic
regions were quiet on UT day 8 May. Mostly quiet global geomagnetic
conditions are expected on UT days 9-11 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 May Normal Normal Normal
10 May Normal Normal Normal
11 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 9-11 May. Fadeouts are possible in the sunlit regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 May 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available .
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 12
May 21
Jun 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 May 10 Near predicted monthly values
10 May 10 Near predicted monthly values
11 May 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 8 May were mostly
near predicted monthly values, with some mild depressions during
the local day. In the Australian region, MUFs are expected to
be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT days 9-11 May with
some possible mild depressions. Fadeouts are possible in the
sunlit regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 May
Speed: 301 km/sec Density: 7.6 p/cc Temp: 29000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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