[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 May 21 issued 2330 UT on 12 May 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 13 09:30:08 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 MAY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 13 MAY - 15 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 May: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 May 14 May 15 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 78/17 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 12 May with a C1.5
flare at 0935 UT from region 2822. There are currently two active
regions on the visible disk of the Sun, AR2822 (Cai-BetaGamma)
and AR2823 (Hax-Alpha). There were no Earth directed CMEs in
the available coronagraph images. Solar activity is expected
to be low to moderate with a chance of more C-class flares and
a small chance of M-class flares for the next three UT days 13-15
May. This is due to the flaring potential of AR2822 which is
currently situated near CMD at N17E10. On UT day 12 May, the
solar wind speed increased suddenly from background levels up
to 440 km/s at 0548 UT and then continued increasing up to 525
km/s. This elevation of solar wind speed to moderately enhanced
levels was most likely caused by the arrival of the 9 May CME
from a DSF. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 23 nT and the north-south
component of IMF (Bz) range was +23/-20 nT and was mostly southwards
during 1022-1429 UT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain
moderately enhanced on UT day 13 May and then gradually decrease
back to nominal levels on UT days 14-15 May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 May: Quiet to Major
Storm
Estimated Indices 12 May : A K
Australian Region 25 01446523
Cocos Island 18 02435423
Darwin 20 11445512
Townsville 25 02446513
Learmonth 35 11556623
Alice Springs 25 02446522
Gingin 27 11435634
Canberra 22 01436512
Hobart 22 01436512
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 May :
Macquarie Island 41 00347711
Casey 18 12544323
Mawson 31 41544436
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 53
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2100 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 May 15 Unsettled to Active
14 May 7 Quiet
15 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 17 was issued on 12 May and
is current for 12-13 May. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian
region on UT day 12 May were quiet initially but then suddenly
became disturbed, rising from unsettled to active levels with
minor storms and a major storm period at about 14 UT. In the
Antarctic region quiet to active levels were also observed with
storm periods. This disturbance was most likely caused by the
9 May CME from a DSF. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be mostly unsettled to active on UT day 13 May, as CME effects
fade. Then mostly quiet levels are expected on UT days 14-15
May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
14 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
15 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderate depressions in HF propagation conditions
are possible on UT days 13-14 May. This disturbance will be more
prominent in the Northern Hemisphere mid and high latitude regions.
Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected on UT day
15 May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 May 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 12
May 21
Jun 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 May 0 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
14 May 5 Near predicted monthly values
15 May 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 12 May were
mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild to moderate
depressions during the local day. There were also some moderate
enhancements in the South Australian during the local night and
Antarctic regions. In the Australian region, MUFs on UT day 13
May are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values during
the local day, with some mild to moderate depressions expected
during the local night. The forecast depressions are in response
to the recent disturbed conditions associated with the 9 May
CME. Then mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 14-15 May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 May
Speed: 333 km/sec Density: 6.9 p/cc Temp: 40700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list