[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 May 21 issued 2330 UT on 01 May 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 2 09:30:09 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 MAY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 02 MAY - 04 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 May: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 May 03 May 04 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 01 May. Currently
AR 2818 is the only region on the solar disk visible from the
earth side. The eastward directed CME that was observed in the
LASCO C2 images starting from 30/13:48 UT does not seem to have
any earthward directed component. On UT day 01 May, the solar
wind speed mostly remained near background levels between 300
km/s and 320 km/s by 13:00 UT and then showed a rise up to around
385 km/ by 18:00 UT. The IMF (Bt) ranged from 2 nT to 9 nT and
the north-south component of IMF (Bz) range was mostly +6/-6
nT. Bz stayed mostly positive during this day. Solar activity
is expected to be very low with a chance of C-class activity
for the next three UT days, 02 to 04 May. The solar wind speed
is expected to stay moderately enhanced during UT days 02 to
04 May due to coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 May : A K
Australian Region 4 10222111
Cocos Island 3 10222110
Darwin 4 21222101
Townsville 5 21222111
Learmonth 4 20222111
Alice Springs 3 10222100
Gingin 3 00122111
Canberra 2 10121001
Hobart 2 00121001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00020000
Casey 6 22321111
Mawson 10 30232124
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1101 1332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 May 12 Quiet to active
03 May 14 Unsettled to Active
04 May 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
at quiet levels on UT day 01 May. Mostly quiet levels with two
unsettled periods were observed in the Antarctic region. Quiet
to active geomagnetic conditions on UT day 02 May and unsettled
to active conditions on UT days 03 and 04 may be expected due
to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
04 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs on UT day 01 May were mostly near predicted monthly
values with some mild depressions in some low to mid-latitude
regions. Mild to moderate MUF depressions are possible on UT
days 02 to 04 May due to the expected increase in geomagnetic
activity during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 May 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 12
May 21
Jun 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 May 8 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
03 May 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
04 May 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 01 May were
mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions
in the Northern Australian region. In the Australian regions,
mild to moderate MUF depressions are possible on UT days 02 to
04 May due to the expected increase in geomagnetic activity during
this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Apr
Speed: 317 km/sec Density: 14.2 p/cc Temp: 60400 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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