[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 May 21 issued 2330 UT on 02 May 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 3 09:30:09 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 MAY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 03 MAY - 05 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 May:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 May             04 May             05 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 2 May. Currently 
there is no numbered region visible on the solar disk. There 
were two non-earthward directed CMEs in the Lasco and Stereo-A 
images at 2/6 UT and 2/12 UT in the North East quadrant. There 
were no other CMEs in the available coronagraph images. Solar 
activity is expected to be very low for the next three UT days 
3-5 May. On UT day 2 May, the solar wind speed was between 310 
km/s and 380 km/s. The IMF (Bt) ranged from 6 nT to 10 nT. The 
north-south component of IMF (Bz) range was +9/-7 nT and mostly 
southwards during 0-5UT. The solar wind speed is expected to 
stay moderately enhanced during UT days 3-5 May due to coronal 
hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 May: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 02 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   32321211
      Cocos Island         5   21311211
      Darwin               8   32321221
      Townsville           8   32321222
      Learmonth            8   32321221
      Alice Springs        7   32321211
      Gingin               4   22310110
      Canberra             5   22310111
      Hobart               4   22310001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 May :
      Macquarie Island     3   12310000
      Casey                6   32321100
      Mawson              26   66422211

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   1112 2112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 May    12    Quiet to Active
04 May    12    Quiet to Active
05 May    12    Quiet to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
at quiet to unsettled levels on UT day 2 May. Quiet to active 
levels with two storm period were observed in the Antarctic region. 
Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected on UT days 
3-5 May due to coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
04 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
05 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mild to moderate depressions in HF propagation conditions 
are possible on UT days 3-5 May due to the expected increase 
in geomagnetic activity during this period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 May    19

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      12
May      21
Jun      24

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 May    10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
04 May    10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
05 May    15    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 2 May were mostly 
near predicted monthly values with some moderate depressions 
in the Niue Island region and mild enhancements in the Southern 
Australian region. In the Australian region, mild to moderate 
MUF depressions are possible on UT days 3-5 May due to the expected 
increase in geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 May
Speed: 315 km/sec  Density:   10.6 p/cc  Temp:    38500 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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