[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 April 21 issued 2330 UT on 30 Apr 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 1 09:30:07 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 APRIL 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 01 MAY - 03 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Apr: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 May 02 May 03 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 30 April. There
are currently three spotted regions on the visible disk, ARs
2818, 2820 and 2821. An eastward directed CME was observed in
the LASCO C2 images starting from 30/13:48 UT. It does not seem
to have any earthward directed component, but further analysis
will be done. Solar activity is expected to be very low with
a chance of a C-class flare for the next three UT days, 01 to
03 May. On UT day 30 April, the solar wind speed mostly remained
near background levels between 310 km/s and 330 km/s. However,
some enhancements upto 357 km/s were observed in the solar wind
speed between 1400 and 1600UT. The IMF (Bt) ranged from 5 nT
to 9 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) range was mosty +7/-2 nT.
Bz went negative upto -6 nT between 1400 and 1600UT. The solar
wind speed is expected to be at background levels initially on
UT day 01 May. However, equatorial coronal holes moving into
geoeffective position are expected to elevate the solar wind
speed to slightly enhanced levels late on UT day 01 May and stay
moderately elevated on 02 May. Also if the weak 26 April CME
from a filament eruption arrives at Earth on UT day 1 May, it
could further increase the solar wind speed to moderately enhanced
levels. Solar wind speed is expected to decline to normal levels
on UT day 03 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 11010220
Cocos Island 2 110-----
Darwin 3 210-----
Townsville 3 210-----
Learmonth 2 110-----
Alice Springs 2 110-----
Gingin 1 01------
Canberra 0 000-----
Hobart 2 01010220
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Apr :
Macquarie Island 0 000-----
Casey 11 133-----
Mawson 5 221-----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1211 2121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 May 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible
02 May 14 Quiet to active
03 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
at quiet levels on UT day 30 April. Mostly quiet levels with
two unsettled periods were observed in the Antarctic region.
Quiet to unsettled conditions with possible active periods are
expected on UT day 01 May. On UT day 02 May the geomagnetic conditions
may stay enhanced to unsettled to active levels and then decline
to quiet to unsettled on 03 May. The weak CME on 26 April could
impact Earth on UT day 01 May, possibly increasing the disturbance
levels from unsettled to active.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Some mild to moderate degradation in HF propagation
conditions at high latitudes may occur on UT days 01-02 May.
Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected on UT day
03 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Apr 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 9
Apr 19
May 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 May 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
02 May 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
03 May 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 30 April were
mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions
in the Northern Australian region. Some mild to moderate MUF
depressions are possible on UT days 01-02 May due to the expected
increase in geomagnetic activity. MUFs are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values on UT day 03 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Apr
Speed: 329 km/sec Density: 6.5 p/cc Temp: 19600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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