[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 March 21 issued 2330 UT on 28 Mar 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 29 10:30:07 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 MARCH 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 29 MARCH - 31 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Mar:  75/13


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Mar             30 Mar             31 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 28 March. AR2812 
(N20W09) is an Hsx/alpha group and appears stable. No Earth directed 
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images. Solar 
activity is expected to be very low for the next three UT days, 
29-31 March. On 28 March, the solar wind speed range was 355 
to 440 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) peaked at 7 nT and the north-south 
IMF (Bz) range was +4/-7 nT. Mild enhancements in the solar wind 
parameters occurred in the first few hours of 28 March, then 
settled and can likely be attributed to the wind stream associated 
with the predicted coronal hole. Mild to moderate enhancements 
are expected in the solar wind parameters on 29 to 30 March due 
to further coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 28 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21111011
      Darwin               3   21111011
      Townsville           3   21111011
      Learmonth            4   31111111
      Alice Springs        3   21111011
      Gingin               4   3110102-
      Canberra             2   21101010
      Hobart               2   21101010    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     1   11100000
      Casey               10   34321121
      Mawson              16   52311125

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   0001 0033     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Mar    15    Quiet to active
30 Mar    12    Quiet to active
31 Mar     7    Quiet

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 12 was issued on 27 March and 
is current for 28-30 Mar. Mostly quiet conditions were observed 
in the Australian region on UT day 28 March, while quiet to minor 
storm levels were observed at high southern latitudes. Geomagnetic 
activity is expected to be quiet to active on 29 to 30 March 
due to coronal hole effects. There is a slight chance of an isolated 
minor storm period. Conditions are expected to settle by 31 March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
30 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
31 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions are possible on 30 March 
due to the expected increase in geomagnetic activity. Normal 
conditions are likely on 31 March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Mar    12

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressions to 20% 02-08 UT. Otherwise near
      predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      -1
Mar      16
Apr      20

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Mar    10    Near predicted monthly values
30 Mar     5    Near predicted monthly values
31 Mar    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were near predicted monthly 
values on UT day 28 March. Mild depressions were observed at 
Hobart to 14 UT. Sporadic E observed at Learmonth 01-15 UT and 
Darwin 07-12 UT. MUFs in the region are expected to be mostly 
near predicted monthly values on UT days 29-31 March with the 
possibility of some mild MUF depressions on 30 March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Mar
Speed: 372 km/sec  Density:    4.5 p/cc  Temp:    40100 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.

More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list