[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 March 21 issued 2330 UT on 27 Mar 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 28 10:30:07 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 MARCH 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 28 MARCH - 30 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Mar: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Mar 29 Mar 30 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 77/16 77/16
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 27 March. No Earth
directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images.
The CME observed early on 26 December being a farside activity,
doesn't have any earthward directed component. Solar activity
is expected to be very low with a small chance of C-class activity
for the next three UT days, 28-30 March. On UT day 27 March until
around 14:00 UT, the solar wind speed gradually reduced from
385 km/s to 335 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) and the north-south
IMF (Bz) ranges were 4 to 7 nT and +4/-3 nT, respectively. After
this the previously predicted coronal hole effect seems to have
kicked in. After 14:00 UT until 23:00 UT, the solar wind speed
gradually increased from 335 km/s to 410 UT, Bt and Bz showed
quicker variations in the ranges 3 to 7 nT and +6/-6 nT respectively.
After 14 UT the solar wind particle density also increased gradually
from 2 to 19 ppcc. Due to the expected successive effects of
3 coronal holes, that will take geoeffective positions one after
the other, the solar wind stream is expected to stay strengthened
for the next 3 UT days with some weakenings during the transition
times of the effects of the successive coronal holes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 01000123
Darwin 4 12000123
Townsville 4 02000123
Learmonth 3 01000123
Alice Springs 3 01000123
Gingin 3 01000123
Canberra 2 01000022
Hobart 2 01000022
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Mar :
Macquarie Island 1 00000012
Casey 7 23210123
Mawson 13 12211026
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 10 2343 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Mar 25 Quiet to active, some minor storm periods possible
29 Mar 20 Unsettled to Active
30 Mar 20 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed in the Australian
and the Antarctic regions on UT day 27 March with 1 period of
storm levels on one Antarctic station. On UT days 28 to 30 March,
geomagnetic activity is expected to vary mostly between quiet
and active levels, with some possibility of minor storm periods
on 28 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Mar Normal Normal Normal
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: On UT day 27 March, MUFs were near predicted monthly
values. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values on UT days 28-30 March with the possibility of minor to
mild MUF depressions on 29 and 30 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Mar 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -1
Mar 16
Apr 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Mar 15 Near predicted monthly values
29 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
30 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: On UT day 27 March, MUFs in the Australian region were
near predicted monthly values. MUFs in this region are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT days 28-30 March
with the possibility of minor to mild MUF depressions on 29 and
30 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Mar
Speed: 418 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 69600 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list