[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 March 21 issued 2330 UT on 29 Mar 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 30 10:30:08 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 MARCH 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 30 MARCH - 01 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Mar:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Mar             31 Mar             01 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              74/11

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 29 March. AR2812 
(N20W22) developed trailer spots and is now a Cao/beta group. 
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph 
images. Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next 
three UT days, 30 March - 01 April. On 29 March, the solar wind 
parameters were at nominal levels, with a speed range of 322-374 
km/s, a peak total IMF (Bt) of 4 nT, and a north-south IMF (Bz) 
range of +/-2 nT. The mild disturbance due to a predicted coronal 
hole wind stream may still eventuate on 30 March. Otherwise, 
mostly nominal solar wind levels are likely on 30 March to 01 
April.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 29 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   10000000
      Darwin               0   10000001
      Townsville           1   11100001
      Learmonth            0   01000000
      Alice Springs        0   10000000
      Gingin               1   1100010-
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               0   00000100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     0   00100000
      Casey                6   32311101
      Mawson              14   33121235

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   3000 0111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Mar     9    Quiet to Unsettled. Slight chance of an active 
                period.
31 Mar     7    Quiet
01 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 12 was issued on 27 March and 
is current for 28-30 Mar. Quiet conditions were observed in the 
Australian region on UT day 29 March, while mostly quiet to unsettled 
levels were observed at southern high latitudes. A disturbance 
related to a coronal hole wind stream may still eventuate on 
30 March. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled 
on 30 March to 01 April. Recurrent weak coronal hole effects 
may commence late on 01 April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
31 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for 30 March to 
01 April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Mar    14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to
      around 25% at Darwin 04-05 and 08-09 UT.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      -1
Mar      16
Apr      20

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Mar    10    Near predicted monthly values
31 Mar    10    Near predicted monthly values
01 Apr    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were near predicted monthly 
values on UT day 29 March. Night spread F observed at Hobart. 
Sporadic E observed at Darwin 07-10 UT and Brisbane 11-15 UT. 
MUFs in the region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly 
values on UT days 30 March to 01 April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Mar
Speed: 398 km/sec  Density:    4.8 p/cc  Temp:    71600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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