[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 March 21 issued 2330 UT on 23 Mar 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 24 10:30:07 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 MARCH 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 24 MARCH - 26 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Mar:  79/19


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Mar             25 Mar             26 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 23 March. There 
are currently two numbered regions on the visible disc, 2810 
and 2811. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available 
coronagraph images. Solar activity is expected to be very low 
for the next three UT days, 24-26 March, with a chance of a C-class 
flare. The solar wind speed followed a decreasing trend from 
540 km/s down to 470 km/s due to the waning effects of a coronal 
hole. The total IMF (Bt) and the north-south IMF (Bz) ranges 
were 3-4 nT and +2/-3 nT, respectively. The solar wind speed 
is expected to continue decreasing on UT days 24-25 March. However, 
a slight enhancement may happen on 26 March due to a 22 March 
CME.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 23 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22222211
      Cocos Island         4   11112211
      Darwin               5   21222211
      Townsville           6   22222211
      Learmonth            7   22223221
      Alice Springs        5   12222211
      Canberra             5   12222211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     7   12233210
      Casey               14   43333322
      Mawson              25   34332455

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             7   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   3321 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Mar    12    Unsettled
25 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled
26 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed in the Australian region 
on UT day 23 March. Quiet to minor storm conditions were observed 
in the Antarctic region; this disturbance is due to the waning 
effects of a coronal hole. On UT days 24-26 March, global geomagnetic 
activity is expected to be mostly at quiet to unsettled levels. 
Isolated active periods are possible on 24 March due to waning 
coronal hole effects and on 26 March due to the 22 March CME.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mild to moderate degradation in HF conditions are possible 
on UT day 24 March, mostly at high latitudes. Mostly normal HF 
conditions are expected on UT days 25-26 March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Mar     8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      -1
Mar      16
Apr      20

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Mar     0    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                20%
25 Mar     5    Near predicted monthly values
26 Mar     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 23 March, MUFs in the Australian region were 
mostly near predicted monthly values with mild to moderate depressions 
in the Southern Australian region. MUFs are expected to be mostly 
near predicted monthly values on UT days 24-26 March. Mild MUF 
depressions are possible on 24 March in response to recent increase 
in geomagnetic activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Mar
Speed: 591 km/sec  Density:    6.5 p/cc  Temp:   158000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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