[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 March 21 issued 2330 UT on 23 Mar 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 24 10:30:07 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 MARCH 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 24 MARCH - 26 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Mar: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Mar 25 Mar 26 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 23 March. There
are currently two numbered regions on the visible disc, 2810
and 2811. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph images. Solar activity is expected to be very low
for the next three UT days, 24-26 March, with a chance of a C-class
flare. The solar wind speed followed a decreasing trend from
540 km/s down to 470 km/s due to the waning effects of a coronal
hole. The total IMF (Bt) and the north-south IMF (Bz) ranges
were 3-4 nT and +2/-3 nT, respectively. The solar wind speed
is expected to continue decreasing on UT days 24-25 March. However,
a slight enhancement may happen on 26 March due to a 22 March
CME.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 22222211
Cocos Island 4 11112211
Darwin 5 21222211
Townsville 6 22222211
Learmonth 7 22223221
Alice Springs 5 12222211
Canberra 5 12222211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Mar :
Macquarie Island 7 12233210
Casey 14 43333322
Mawson 25 34332455
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 3321 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Mar 12 Unsettled
25 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed in the Australian region
on UT day 23 March. Quiet to minor storm conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region; this disturbance is due to the waning
effects of a coronal hole. On UT days 24-26 March, global geomagnetic
activity is expected to be mostly at quiet to unsettled levels.
Isolated active periods are possible on 24 March due to waning
coronal hole effects and on 26 March due to the 22 March CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderate degradation in HF conditions are possible
on UT day 24 March, mostly at high latitudes. Mostly normal HF
conditions are expected on UT days 25-26 March.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Mar 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -1
Mar 16
Apr 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
25 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values
26 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 23 March, MUFs in the Australian region were
mostly near predicted monthly values with mild to moderate depressions
in the Southern Australian region. MUFs are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values on UT days 24-26 March. Mild MUF
depressions are possible on 24 March in response to recent increase
in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Mar
Speed: 591 km/sec Density: 6.5 p/cc Temp: 158000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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