[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 March 21 issued 2330 UT on 22 Mar 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 23 10:30:08 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 MARCH 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 23 MARCH - 25 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Mar: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Mar 24 Mar 25 Mar
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 22 March. There
are currently two numbered regions on the visible disk, 2810
(N21W12) and 2811 (N20E52). Region 2810 produced a B5.6 flare
at 22/0139 UT; the flare seems to be associated with a CME observed
in the Lasco and Stereo-A coronagraph images. This CME looks
to be geoeffective but further analysis is required. No other
Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
images. Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next
three UT days, 23-25 March, with a chance of a C-class flare.
The solar wind speed followed a decreasing trend from 650 km/s
down to 540 km/s due to the waning effects of a coronal hole.
The total IMF (Bt) peaked at 5 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz)
range was +/-2 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to continue
decreasing on UT days 23-24 March. However if the 20 March CME
delivers a glancing blow at Earth as predicted on 23 March, then
it will cause slight enhancements in solar wind speed. The solar
wind speed is then expected to decrease to nominal levels on
UT day 25 March. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement
event beginning 22/1615UT, which can be a precursor to increased
geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 22121211
Cocos Island 4 22111210
Darwin 4 22111211
Townsville 5 22121221
Learmonth 5 32121210
Alice Springs 5 22121211
Gingin 6 022213--
Canberra 4 12221210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Mar :
Macquarie Island 6 22331110
Casey 13 44422211
Mawson 29 54444254
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 62 (Active)
Canberra 41 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 20 3311 4444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
24 Mar 12 Unsettled
25 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 22 March. Quiet to minor storm conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region. This disturbance is due to
the waning effects of a coronal hole. On UT days 23-24 March,
global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at quiet
to unsettled levels with possible active periods due to waning
coronal hole effects and a possible glancing blow from the 20
March CME. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on UT day
25 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderate degradation in HF conditions are possible
on UT days 23-24 March, mostly at high latitudes. Mostly normal
HF conditions are expected on UT day 25 March.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Mar 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -1
Mar 16
Apr 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
24 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
25 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 22 March, MUFs in the Australian region were
mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild to moderate
depressions. Mild to moderate MUF depressions are also possible
on UT days 23-24 March in response to recent geomagnetic activity.
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
on UT day 25 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Mar
Speed: 600 km/sec Density: 8.2 p/cc Temp: 438000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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