[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 March 21 issued 2335 UT on 21 Mar 2021
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 22 10:35:58 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 MARCH 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 22 MARCH - 24 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Mar: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Mar 23 Mar 24 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 77/16 77/16 77/16
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 21 March. There
are currently two numbered regions on the visible disk, 2810(N21E02)
and 2811(N18E61), both producing weak B-class flares. Solar activity
is expected to be very low for the next three UT days 22-24 March,
with a small chance of a C-class lare. No Earth directed CMEs
were observed in the available coronagraph images. Active filaments
observed in NE quadrant and prominence on the SW limb are monitored.
Earth remained under the influence the HSS associated with the
southern hemisphere negative polarity coronal hole. The solar
wind speed varied between 550 km/s and 680 km/s, currently around
590 Km/s. The total IMF (Bt) peaked at 8 nT and the north-south
IMF (Bz) range was +6/-7 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain enhanced on UT days 22-23 March due to the continuing
coronal hole effects, then gradually decline to background levels
from UT day 24 March. The 20 March CME could deliver a glancing
blow at Earth on 23 March, causing slight enhancements in solar
wind speed.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Mar: Quiet to Active
with isolated minor storm periods.
Estimated Indices 21 Mar : A K
Australian Region 12 32213432
Cocos Island 10 22113432
Darwin 8 22212332
Townsville 10 32213332
Learmonth 17 32223543
Alice Springs 12 32213432
Gingin 20 32223553
Canberra 10 32213332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Mar :
Macquarie Island 40 33237652
Casey 23 44333354
Mawson 74 56324777
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 24 2355 3433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Mar 18 Quiet to active with a possible isolated minor
storm period.
23 Mar 20 Quiet to active with possible isolated minor
storm periods.
24 Mar 15 Quiet to active
COMMENT: Quiet to active conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 21 March with isolated minor storm periods.
Minor to major storm periods were observed in the Antarctic region.
This disturbance is associated with the HSS from the coronal
hole. Quiet to active levels are expected on UT days, 22-23 March
due to the continuing coronal hole effects and a possible glancing
blow from the 20 March CME. Quiet to unsettled conditions with
possible active periods are expected on UT day 24-March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Mar Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
23 Mar Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
24 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderate degradation in HF conditions are possible
on UT days 22-24 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Mar 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -1
Mar 16
Apr 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Mar -15 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
23 Mar -15 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
24 Mar -5 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 10 was issued on 19 March
and is current for 20-22 Mar. On UT day 21 March, MUFs in the
Australian region were mostly near predicted monthly values with
some mild to moderate depressions at High to Mid latitude regions.
Mild to moderate MUF depressions are possible on UT days 22-24
March in response to forecast geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Mar
Speed: 580 km/sec Density: 8.9 p/cc Temp: 435000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list