[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 March 21 issued 2330 UT on 24 Mar 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 25 10:30:07 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 MARCH 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 25 MARCH - 27 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Mar: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Mar 26 Mar 27 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 24 March. There
are currently three numbered regions on the visible disc, 2810,
2811, and 2812. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph images. Solar activity is expected to be very low
for the next three UT days, 25-27 March, with a chance of a C-class
flare. From 24/0000 UT to 24/19:17 UT, the solar wind speed followed
a decreasing trend from 460 km/s down to 370 km/s. The total
IMF (Bt) and the north-south IMF (Bz) ranges were 1-5 nT and
+2/-4 nT, respectively. At 19:17 UT a shocklike feature was observed.
The solar wind speed increased to 440 km/s; Bt and Bz peaked
at 8 nT and -7 nT, respectively. The solar wind speed is expected
to vary near its nominal levels on UT days 25-26 March. However,
slight enhancements may happen on 26 and 27 March due to a 22
March CME and coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 12221022
Cocos Island 5 12221022
Darwin 5 12221122
Townsville 5 12221122
Learmonth 5 22221022
Alice Springs 5 12221022
Gingin 5 222220--
Canberra 5 12221022
Hobart 5 12222022
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Mar :
Macquarie Island 9 12334011
Casey 11 23422123
Mawson 39 64343227
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 3321 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed in the Australian region
on UT day 24 March. Quiet to storm conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region. On UT days 25-27 March, global geomagnetic
activity is expected to be mostly at quiet to unsettled levels.
Isolated active periods are possible on 26-27 March due to the
22 March CME and coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected on UT days
25-27 March.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Mar 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -1
Mar 16
Apr 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values
26 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values
27 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 24 March, MUFs in the Australian region were
mostly near predicted monthly values with mild depressions. MUFs
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT
days 25-27 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Mar
Speed: 508 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 195000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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