[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 March 21 issued 2333 UT on 13 Mar 2021
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 14 10:33:33 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 MARCH 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 14 MARCH - 16 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Mar: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Mar 15 Mar 16 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 77/16 77/16 77/16
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 13 March. There
are currently two numbered regions on the visible disk; 2808
(N18E20), and 2809 (S23W07). Solar activity is expected to be
very low for the next three UT days, 14-16 March. No Earth directed
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO coronagraph images.
The solar wind speed was near its nominal levels till 13/1200
UT and from thereon increased gradually to moderately elevated
levels. The current solar wind speed is near 570 km/s. This is
in response to arrival of high-speed streams emanating from a
Southern Polar Coronal hole. The total IMF (Bt) varied between
4 nT and 15 nT; the north-south IMF (Bz) was in range +9/-11
nT. There was a short-lived period (13/0300 UT - 13/0430 UT)
of significant IMF Bz southward condition associated with the
CIR from the coronal hole. Solar wind speed is expected to stay
near its moderately enhanced level today, 14 March due to coronal
hole effects. The solar wind speed is expected to decline from
late UT day 14 March as the coronal hole effects begin to fade.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Mar: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 13 Mar : A K
Australian Region 12 34231322
Cocos Island 9 23221332
Darwin 11 34232221
Townsville 13 34332322
Learmonth 13 34232332
Alice Springs 10 23331321
Gingin 11 33231332
Canberra 12 24331322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Mar :
Macquarie Island 16 24352322
Casey 21 45522233
Mawson 44 45423376
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 19
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 1232 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Mar 12 Unsettled
15 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to active conditions were observed in the
Australian region on UT day 13 March. Unsettled to minor storm
levels were observed in the Antarctic region. The disturbed periods
were caused by the arrival of the coronal hole effects. Global
geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly unsettled today
(14 March), with a chance of isolated active periods, due to
the coronal hole effects. Mostly quiet and isolated unsettled
periods are expected on UT days 15-16 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Some degradation in HF conditions may be observed at
high and mid latitudes on UT day 14 March due to the recent geomagnetic
activity. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected from UT day
15 March.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Mar -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -1
Mar 16
Apr 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values
15 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values
16 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 13 March, MUFs in the Australian region were
mostly near mildly depressed levels in response to the disturbed
geomagnetic conditions associated with the coronal hole. Sporadic
E was observed at times at some stations. Mild MUF depressions
might continue on UT day 14 March in response to recent increase
in geomagnetic activity. MUFs in the Australian region are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT days 15-16 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Mar
Speed: 350 km/sec Density: 9.4 p/cc Temp: 44200 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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