[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 March 21 issued 2330 UT on 12 Mar 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 13 10:30:09 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 MARCH 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 13 MARCH - 15 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Mar:  77/16


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Mar             14 Mar             15 Mar
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              78/17              78/17

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 12 March with 
a B2.5 flare from region 2808 at 1904 UT. There are currently 
three numbered regions on the visible disk; 2807 (S19W86), 2808 
(N18E33), and 2809 (S23E06). Solar activity is expected to be 
very low for the next three UT days, 13-15 March, with a chance 
of C-class flares. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the 
available LASCO coronagraph images. The solar wind speed range 
was 320 km/s to 380 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 4 
nT and 11 nT; the north-south IMF (Bz) was mostly negative and 
its range was +5/-8 nT. Solar wind speed is expected to stay 
near its nominal levels; mild enhancements are possible on 13-14 
March due to coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 12 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region      11   22233332
      Cocos Island         9   22222332
      Darwin              11   22233332
      Townsville          12   22333332
      Learmonth           12   32233332
      Alice Springs       11   22233332
      Gingin              11   22223342
      Canberra             9   22223331    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    16   12354330
      Casey               12   33332232
      Mawson              26   43433355

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   0000 0213     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Mar    12    Unsettled
14 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled
15 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions were observed in 
the Australian region on UT day 12 March. Quiet to minor storm 
levels were observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic 
conditions are expected to remain mostly at quiet to unsettled 
levels during the next three UT days, 13-15 March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF propagation conditions are 
expected on UT days 13-15 March. Some degradation in HF conditions 
may be observed at high and mid latitudes on UT days 13-14 March.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Mar    29

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      -1
Mar      16
Apr      20

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Mar     5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                25%
14 Mar     5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15%
15 Mar     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 12 March, MUFs in the Australian region were 
mostly near predicted monthly values during local day and mildly 
to moderately enhanced MUFs were observed during local night. 
Sporadic E was observed at times at some stations. MUFs in the 
Australian region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly 
values on UT days 13-15 March. Mild to moderate MUF depressions 
might be observed on UT days 13-14 March in response to recent 
increase in geomagnetic activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Mar
Speed: 368 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:    48100 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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