[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 March 21 issued 2330 UT on 09 Mar 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 10 10:30:08 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 MARCH 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 10 MARCH - 12 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Mar:  84/26


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Mar             11 Mar             12 Mar
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    82/23              82/23              82/23

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 9 March with a C1.6 
flare at 1235UT from region 2808 (N17E70). There are two numbered 
regions on the visible disk; 2807(S19W45) and 2808. Solar activity 
is expected to be very low to low for the next three UT days 
10-12 March. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available 
coronagraph images (large data gap between 09/1212-1748UT). SDO 
images observed a small filament eruption in the NE quadrant 
around 09/03UT. No associated CME signature was observed. The 
solar wind speed declined from 505 km/s to 400 km/s. The peak 
total IMF (Bt) was 5 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) range was 
+4/-3 nT. Solar wind speed is expected to continue declining 
to background levels on UT days 10-11 March due to waning coronal 
hole effects. Then solar wind speed is expected to elevate again 
to moderate levels from UT day 12 March due to another coronal 
hole reaching geoeffective position.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 09 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   10001100
      Cocos Island         0   00000100
      Darwin               1   21000100
      Townsville           2   11111101
      Learmonth            1   10011100
      Alice Springs        0   10000000
      Gingin               1   10001100
      Canberra             0   10001000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     0   10001000
      Casey                6   23321100
      Mawson               7   32211123

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   0010 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Mar     7    Quiet
11 Mar     5    Quiet
12 Mar    12    Quiet to Active

COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed in the Australian region 
on UT day 9 March. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed in 
the Antarctic region. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected on 
UT days 10-11 March as coronal hole effects wane. Then quiet 
to active conditions are expected on UT day 12 March as another 
coronal hole becomes geoeffective.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on UT days 10-12 March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Mar     5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      -1
Mar      16
Apr      20

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Mar    10    Near predicted monthly values
11 Mar    10    Near predicted monthly values
12 Mar     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Presently SWS is experiencing technical difficulties 
with acquiring data from our network. This issue is currently 
under investigation. On UT day 9 March, MUFs in the Australian 
region were mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild 
to moderate depressions during the local night. Sporadic E was 
observed at times at some stations. MUFs in the Australian region 
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT 
days 10-12 March.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Mar
Speed: 502 km/sec  Density:    6.3 p/cc  Temp:   269000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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