[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 March 21 issued 2336 UT on 08 Mar 2021

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 9 10:36:23 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 MARCH 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 09 MARCH - 11 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Mar:  80/20


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Mar             10 Mar             11 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 8 March. There 
are two numbered regions on the visible disk AR2806 (S29W76) 
and AR2807 (S19W32) that have both decayed to plages. Solar activity 
is expected to be very low for the next three UT days 9-11 March. 
SOHO LASCO images observed a CME at 07/20UT to the east, not 
expected to be geoeffective. SDO images observed a small filament 
eruption in the NW quadrant around 08/0139 UT. No associated 
CME signature was observed in the available images. The solar 
wind speed ranged from 450 km/s to 540 km/s. The peak total IMF 
(Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) range was +5/-3 nT. 
Mild coronal hole effects are expected to continue on UT day 
9 March with solar wind speed slowly declining to background 
levels on UT days 10-11 March.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 08 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11101222
      Cocos Island         3   00211220
      Darwin               4   11101222
      Townsville           4   11101222
      Learmonth            4   11101222
      Alice Springs        4   11101222
      Gingin               5   11101232
      Canberra             3   10101122    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     1   01001111
      Casey               16   34432233
      Mawson              20   22212265

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   2101 1313     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled
10 Mar     7    Quiet
11 Mar     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions with one unsettled period were 
observed in the Australian region on UT day 8 March. Quiet to 
active levels were observed in the Antarctic region with one 
storm period. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on UT 
day 9 March as the coronal hole effects continue. Then mostly 
quiet conditions are expected on UT days 10-11 March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
10 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on UT days 9-11 March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Mar     5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      -1
Mar      16
Apr      20

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Mar     5    Near predicted monthly values
10 Mar    10    Near predicted monthly values
11 Mar    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Presently SWS is experiencing technical difficulties 
with acquiring data from our network. This issue is currently 
under investigation. On UT day 8 March, MUFs in the Australian 
region were mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild 
depressions during the local night. Some sporadic E was observed 
at times. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly 
near predicted monthly values on UT days 9-11 March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.8E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Mar
Speed: 516 km/sec  Density:    5.4 p/cc  Temp:   220000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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