[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 March 21 issued 2336 UT on 08 Mar 2021
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 9 10:36:23 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 MARCH 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 09 MARCH - 11 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Mar: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 8 March. There
are two numbered regions on the visible disk AR2806 (S29W76)
and AR2807 (S19W32) that have both decayed to plages. Solar activity
is expected to be very low for the next three UT days 9-11 March.
SOHO LASCO images observed a CME at 07/20UT to the east, not
expected to be geoeffective. SDO images observed a small filament
eruption in the NW quadrant around 08/0139 UT. No associated
CME signature was observed in the available images. The solar
wind speed ranged from 450 km/s to 540 km/s. The peak total IMF
(Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) range was +5/-3 nT.
Mild coronal hole effects are expected to continue on UT day
9 March with solar wind speed slowly declining to background
levels on UT days 10-11 March.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 11101222
Cocos Island 3 00211220
Darwin 4 11101222
Townsville 4 11101222
Learmonth 4 11101222
Alice Springs 4 11101222
Gingin 5 11101232
Canberra 3 10101122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Mar :
Macquarie Island 1 01001111
Casey 16 34432233
Mawson 20 22212265
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 2101 1313
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Mar 7 Quiet
11 Mar 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions with one unsettled period were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 8 March. Quiet to
active levels were observed in the Antarctic region with one
storm period. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on UT
day 9 March as the coronal hole effects continue. Then mostly
quiet conditions are expected on UT days 10-11 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Mar Normal Normal Normal
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 9-11 March.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Mar 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -1
Mar 16
Apr 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values
10 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values
11 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Presently SWS is experiencing technical difficulties
with acquiring data from our network. This issue is currently
under investigation. On UT day 8 March, MUFs in the Australian
region were mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild
depressions during the local night. Some sporadic E was observed
at times. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values on UT days 9-11 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Mar
Speed: 516 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 220000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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