[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 March 21 issued 2329 UT on 07 Mar 2021

Mon Mar 8 10:29:05 EST 2021

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 MARCH 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 08 MARCH - 10 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Mar:  78/17

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Mar             09 Mar             10 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    76/14              72/8               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 7 March. There 
are two numbered regions on the visible disk AR2806 (S31W63 Bxo/beta) 
that has redeveloped and AR2807 (S19W19) that has decayed to 
a plage. An unnumbered region at N28E50 has developed a spot. 
Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three 
UT days 8-10 March. There were no Earth directed CMEs observed 
in the available coronagraph images. The solar wind speed gradually 
declined from 575 km/s to 483 km/s. The peak total IMF (Bt) was 
8 nT at 1933 UT and the north-south IMF (Bz) range was +6/-5 
nT. Mild coronal hole effects are expected to continue on UT 
days 8-9 March with solar wind speed slowly declining to background 
levels on UT day 10 March.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 07 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21120312
      Cocos Island         4   11110312
      Darwin               4   21120212
      Townsville           7   21120323
      Learmonth            7   22120313
      Alice Springs        5   21020312
      Gingin               5   11110313
      Canberra             5   22020312    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     4   11010312
      Casey               15   34331423
      Mawson              21   33222436

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             14   4433 2222     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled
09 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled
10 Mar     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 7 March. Quiet to active levels were observed 
in the Antarctic region. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected 
on UT days 8-9 March as the coronal hole effects continue. There 
is a small chance of an isolated active period on UT day 8 March. 
Quiet conditions are expected on UT day 10 March.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were normal to fair on 7 March. 
Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected on UT days 
8-10 March.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
07 Mar     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      -1
Mar      16
Apr      20

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Mar     5    Near predicted monthly values
09 Mar     5    Near predicted monthly values
10 Mar    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 7 March, MUFs in the Australian region were 
mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild to moderate 
depressions from 00-07UT and 11-15UT. Some sporadic E was observed 
during daytime. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to 
be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT days 8-10 March.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Mar
Speed: 529 km/sec  Density:    8.3 p/cc  Temp:   217000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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