[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 March 21 issued 2330 UT on 06 Mar 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 7 10:30:06 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 MARCH 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 07 MARCH - 09 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Mar:  77/16


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Mar             08 Mar             09 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    77/16              77/16              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 6 March. AR2806 
(S31W52) and AR2807 (S19W07) are now both Axx/alpha groups. An 
active plage region at N28E62 has quietened. Solar activity is 
expected to be very low for the next three UT days 7-9 March. 
There were no CMEs observed in the available coronagraph images. 
The solar wind speed range was 366 to 599 km/s. The peak total 
IMF (Bt) was 12 nT at 0305 UT and the north-south IMF (Bz) range 
was +/-8 nT. Solar wind density began to increase late on 5 March 
and peaked around 0233 UT as the preceding corotating interaction 
region associated with the coronal hole arrived. Mild coronal 
hole effects are expected to continue on 7 March with wind speed 
slowly declining to background levels by the end of the forecast 
period.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Mar: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 06 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region      12   34323122
      Cocos Island         6   23222111
      Darwin              11   34323112
      Townsville          12   34323122
      Learmonth           11   33333221
      Alice Springs       12   34323122
      Gingin              10   33223222
      Canberra            10   24323112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    18   24454112
      Casey               21   35533223
      Mawson              25   34433255

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              17   (Quiet)
      Canberra            25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   1222 1121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Mar    14    Quiet to unsettled. Possible active periods.
08 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled
09 Mar     7    Quiet

COMMENT: A weak (9nT) impulse was observed at 0315UT in the SWS 
magnetometer data. Quiet to active conditions were observed in 
the Australian region on UT day 6 March. Quiet to minor storm 
levels were observed in the Antarctic region. Quiet to unsettled 
conditions are expected 7-9 March with isolated active periods 
possible on 7 March as the coronal hole effects continue.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
08 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
09 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Some possible degraded conditions on 7 March. Mostly 
normal HF propagation conditions expected 8-9 March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Mar     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      -1
Mar      16
Apr      20

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Mar     5    Near predicted monthly values
08 Mar     5    Near predicted monthly values
09 Mar    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 7 March, MUFs in the Australian region were 
mostly near predicted monthly values with mild depressions at 
some stations between 01-05 and 10-18 UT. Some sporadic E was 
observed during daytime. MUFs in the Australian region are expected 
to be mostly near predicted monthly values 7-9 March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.6E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Mar
Speed: 395 km/sec  Density:    7.2 p/cc  Temp:    64900 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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