[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 March 21 issued 2330 UT on 05 Mar 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 6 10:30:08 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 MARCH 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 06 MARCH - 08 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Mar: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Mar 07 Mar 08 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 5 March. AR2806
(S31W37 Axx/alpha) and AR2807 (S19E08 Bxo/beta) continued to
decay. Activity has been occurring on the east limb near N28
over the day. Solar activity is expected to be very low for the
next three UT days 6-8 March. There were no CMEs observed in
the available coronagraph images. The solar wind speed further
declined from around 450 km/s to 375 km/s. The peak total IMF
(Bt) was 5 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) range was +/-3 nT.
Longitudinally extensive coronal holes are expected to elevate
the solar wind over the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 11111012
Cocos Island 2 10111011
Darwin 2 11111002
Townsville 4 11111122
Learmonth 3 11211012
Alice Springs 1 10101011
Gingin 2 10101022
Canberra 2 11111011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Mar :
Macquarie Island 2 01121011
Casey 8 23321122
Mawson 25 43522155
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 9 4310 2213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Mar 20 Quiet to active with possible minor storm periods
07 Mar 16 Unsettled with active periods
08 Mar 10 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 10 was issued on 3 March and
is current for 4-6 Mar. Quiet conditions were observed in the
Australian region on UT day 5 March. Quiet to minor storm levels
were observed in the Antarctic region. Recurrent coronal hole
activity is forecast to elevate global geomagnetic activity over
the next two days. Quiet to active conditions with isolated minor
storm periods are possible on 6 March. Mostly unsettled to active
conditions are expected on 7 March as the effects subside.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
07 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
08 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF propagation conditions are
expected UT days 6-8 March due to expected geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Mar 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with some
depressions 02-07 UT.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -1
Mar 16
Apr 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Mar -5 Near predicted monthly values. Mild to moderate
depressions at higher latitudes possible later.
07 Mar 0 Mild depressions at first, recovering to near
predicted monthly values.
08 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 9 was issued on 3 March
and is current for 4-6 Mar. On UT day 5 March, MUFs in the Australian
region were mostly near predicted monthly values with some moderate
depressions around 04-07 and 17-19 UT at Darwin, Townsville and
Learmonth. Some sporadic E was observed during daytime. MUFs
in the Australian region are expected to be near predicted monthly
values at first on 6 March. Some mild MUF depressions are possible
in response to the forecast geomagnetic activity and are likely
to continue into 7 March. MUFs should return to near predicted
monthly values on 8 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Mar
Speed: 496 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 183000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list