[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 March 21 issued 2330 UT on 04 Mar 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 5 10:30:07 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 MARCH 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 05 MARCH - 07 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Mar: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Mar 06 Mar 07 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 78/17 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 4 March. There
are two spotted regions on the visible disk AR2806 (S31W25 Bxo/beta)
and AR2807 (S19E20 Cso/beta) both decaying. Solar activity is
expected to be very low for the next three UT days 5-7 March.
There was a CME observed in the Lasco images on UT day 03 March
at 22UT, but a source could not be found on the visible disk
and it is unlikely to be geoeffective. There were no other CMEs
observed in the available coronagraph images. On 4 March, the
solar wind speed decreased gradually from 597 km/s to 450 km/s
due to waning Southern Polar coronal hole effects. The total
IMF (Bt) peaked at 6 nT and the north-south component of the
IMF (Bz) range was +/-4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to be elevated again on UT day 5 March as a large equatorial
coronal hole moves into geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 21112212
Cocos Island 4 21111211
Darwin 3 21111111
Townsville 5 22112112
Learmonth 5 21112212
Alice Springs 5 21112212
Gingin 6 22112222
Canberra 5 22112212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Mar :
Macquarie Island 9 33004311
Casey 12 34331222
Mawson 33 63322356
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 3 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 3 (Quiet)
Gingin 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 22 4553 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
06 Mar 20 Active
07 Mar 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 10 was issued on 3 March and
is current for 4-6 Mar. On UT day 4 March, quiet conditions were
observed in the Australian region. Unsettled to storm levels
were observed in the Antarctic region. On UT day 5 March geomagnetic
activity is expected to be mostly unsettled to active. On UT
day 6 March unsettled to active levels are expected. Periods
of minor storms maybe possible on both 5 and 6 March. The forecasted
disturbed conditions are due to a large equatorial coronal hole
becoming geoeffective.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF propagation conditions are
expected UT days 5-7 March due to expected geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Mar 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -1
Mar 16
Apr 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values
06 Mar -5 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
07 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 9 was issued on 3 March
and is current for 4-6 Mar. On UT day 4 March, MUFs in the Australian
region were mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild
depressions. Sporadic E layers were observed, strong at times.
MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be near predicted
monthly values on UT day 5 March. Some mild MUF depressions are
likely on UT day 6 March in response to the forecast geomagnetic
activity. Then on UT day 7 March the MUFs in the Australian region
are expected to be near predicted monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Mar
Speed: 612 km/sec Density: 9.2 p/cc Temp: 350000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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