[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 March 21 issued 2330 UT on 10 Mar 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 11 10:30:08 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 MARCH 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 11 MARCH - 13 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Mar:  79/19


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Mar             12 Mar             13 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    79/19              79/19              79/19

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 10 March. Solar 
activity is expected to be very low for the next three UT days 
11-13 March with a slight chance of a C-class flare. No Earth 
directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images. 
A small filament eruption was observed in H-alpha Learmonth and 
SDO images near S47W10 at around 10/0430UT. No associated CME 
signature was observed. The solar wind speed continued declining 
from 420 km/s to 370 km/s. The peak total IMF (Bt) was 5 nT and 
the north-south IMF (Bz) range was mostly northward. Solar wind 
speed is expected to decline to background levels on UT days 
11-12 March due to waning coronal hole effects. Then solar wind 
speed is expected to elevate again to moderate levels late on 
UT day 12 March into UT day 13 March due to a negative polarity 
low latitude coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 10 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   00000000
      Cocos Island         0   01000000
      Darwin               1   11100001
      Townsville           1   10000011
      Learmonth            0   10000000
      Alice Springs        0   00000000
      Gingin               0   00000000
      Canberra             0   00000010    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                7   33321010
      Mawson               1   11010010

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1100 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Mar     5    Quiet
12 Mar    10    Quiet to unsettled with possible active periods
13 Mar    15    Quiet to active

COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed in the Australian region 
on UT day 10 March. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed in 
the Antarctic region. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 
UT day 11 March as coronal hole effects wane. Quiet to unsettled 
conditions with possible active periods are expected from late 
UT day 12 March due to effects from a negative polarity low latitude 
coronal hole.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on UT days 11-12 March. Some degradation in HF conditions may 
occur on UT day 13 March.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Mar     7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      -1
Mar      16
Apr      20

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Mar    10    Near predicted monthly values
12 Mar     5    Near predicted monthly values
13 Mar    -5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%

COMMENT: On UT day 10 March, MUFs in the Australian region were 
mostly near predicted monthly values with some moderate depressions 
during the local night. Sporadic E was observed at times at some 
stations. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly 
near predicted monthly values on UT days 11-12 March. Then some 
mild to moderate MUF depressions might be observed on UT day 
13 March in response to forecast geomagnetic activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Mar
Speed: 456 km/sec  Density:    5.1 p/cc  Temp:   153000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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