[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 June 21 issued 2330 UT on 16 Jun 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 17 09:30:05 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JUNE 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 17 JUNE - 19 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jun: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jun 18 Jun 19 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 16 June. Currently
there is one numbered region on the visible disk, AR 2833. There
was a DSF in SDO images around 16/1339 UT near S25W20. Also a
weak westward CME was observed in the Stereo-A coronagraph images
at around 16/17 UT. Further analysis is required when more Lasco
data becomes available. No other CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph images. Solar activity is expected to be very low
on UT days 17-19 June. On UT day 16 June, the solar wind speed
followed a decreasing trend from 620 km/s down to 550 km/s due
to fading coronal hole effects. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 6 nT and
the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +4/-5 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to be slightly to moderately enhanced
on UT days 17-18 June due to persistent coronal hole effects.
Then on UT day 19 June the solar wind speed is expected to decrease
to background levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 Jun : A K
Australian Region 8 32231212
Cocos Island 4 22120211
Darwin 7 32221212
Townsville 8 32232212
Learmonth 8 32221322
Alice Springs 8 32231212
Gingin 11 32231422
Canberra 9 32332212
Hobart 9 32332212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jun :
Macquarie Island 15 33443311
Casey 23 33332643
Mawson 47 75443545
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 15 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 17 2222 4353
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
18 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Jun 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet to unsettled with one active period on UT day 16 June.
In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic conditions were at quiet
to storm levels with one storm period. On UT day 17 June, global
geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly unsettled to
active in response to the high speed streams from the coronal
hole effects. On UT day 18 June, global geomagnetic activity
is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled, as the coronal hole
effects fade. Then mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected
on UT day 19 June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 17-19 June.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jun 26
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 13
Jun 22
Jul 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jun 15 Near predicted monthly values
18 Jun 20 Near predicted monthly values
19 Jun 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 16 June were
mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild MUF depressions
in the Niue Island region during the local day. There were also
some enhancements in the Southern Australian region during the
local night. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values on UT days 17-19 June, with a chance of some mild depression
on UT day 17 June due the recent geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jun
Speed: 390 km/sec Density: 10.3 p/cc Temp: 149000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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