[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 June 21 issued 2330 UT on 15 Jun 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 16 09:30:06 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JUNE 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 16 JUNE - 18 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jun:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Jun             17 Jun             18 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 15 June. Currently 
there are two numbered regions on the visible disk, AR 2832 and 
AR 2833. A CME was observed in the LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery 
starting at 15/0430 UT, however, no noticeable source on the 
earthward facing solar disk for the CME could be identified. 
An update for on this event will be provided later. No other 
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images. Solar 
activity is expected to be very low on UT days 16-18 June. On 
UT day 15 June, the solar wind speed increased from 330 km/s 
up to 630 km/s due to a southern polar coronal hole with extension 
down to low latitudes. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 16 nT and the north-south 
IMF component (Bz) range was +14/-8 nT. The solar wind speed 
is expected to remain moderately enhanced on UT day 16 June. 
Then on UT days 17-18 June the solar wind speed is expected to 
start decreasing to background levels as coronal hole effects 
fade.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 15 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   12223233
      Cocos Island         8   11213233
      Darwin               9   11223233
      Townsville          10   22223233
      Learmonth           10   22223233
      Alice Springs       10   22223233
      Gingin               8   12212233
      Canberra             8   12212233
      Hobart               7   11112233    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     7   00023323
      Casey               14   23222434
      Mawson              69   34222388

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart              34   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              4   1011 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Jun    20    Active
17 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled
18 Jun     7    Quiet

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 22 was issued on 14 June and 
is current for 15-16 Jun. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian 
region were quiet to unsettled on UT day 15 June. In the Antarctic 
region, geomagnetic conditions were quiet to active with one 
storm period. On UT day 16 June, global geomagnetic conditions 
are expected to be active with possible chance of isolated minor 
storm in response to the high speed streams from the coronal 
hole effects. On UT day 17 June, global geomagnetic activity 
is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled, as the coronal hole 
effects begin to fade.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
17 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
18 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Some mild degradation in HF propagation conditions may 
be observed on UT day 16 and 17 June due to recent geomagnetic 
activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Jun    13

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      13
Jun      22
Jul      24

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Jun     5    Near predicted monthly values
17 Jun    10    Near predicted monthly values
18 Jun    15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 15 June were 
mostly near predicted monthly values. MUFs are expected to be 
mostly near predicted monthly values on UT days 16-18 June. Some 
mild MUF depressions may be observed on UT day 16 June due to 
recent geomagnetic activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jun
Speed: 365 km/sec  Density:    4.8 p/cc  Temp:   156000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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