[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 June 21 issued 2330 UT on 15 Jun 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 16 09:30:06 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JUNE 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 16 JUNE - 18 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jun: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jun 17 Jun 18 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 15 June. Currently
there are two numbered regions on the visible disk, AR 2832 and
AR 2833. A CME was observed in the LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery
starting at 15/0430 UT, however, no noticeable source on the
earthward facing solar disk for the CME could be identified.
An update for on this event will be provided later. No other
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images. Solar
activity is expected to be very low on UT days 16-18 June. On
UT day 15 June, the solar wind speed increased from 330 km/s
up to 630 km/s due to a southern polar coronal hole with extension
down to low latitudes. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 16 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +14/-8 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to remain moderately enhanced on UT day 16 June.
Then on UT days 17-18 June the solar wind speed is expected to
start decreasing to background levels as coronal hole effects
fade.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Jun : A K
Australian Region 9 12223233
Cocos Island 8 11213233
Darwin 9 11223233
Townsville 10 22223233
Learmonth 10 22223233
Alice Springs 10 22223233
Gingin 8 12212233
Canberra 8 12212233
Hobart 7 11112233
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jun :
Macquarie Island 7 00023323
Casey 14 23222434
Mawson 69 34222388
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 4 1011 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jun 20 Active
17 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Jun 7 Quiet
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 22 was issued on 14 June and
is current for 15-16 Jun. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian
region were quiet to unsettled on UT day 15 June. In the Antarctic
region, geomagnetic conditions were quiet to active with one
storm period. On UT day 16 June, global geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be active with possible chance of isolated minor
storm in response to the high speed streams from the coronal
hole effects. On UT day 17 June, global geomagnetic activity
is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled, as the coronal hole
effects begin to fade.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
17 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Some mild degradation in HF propagation conditions may
be observed on UT day 16 and 17 June due to recent geomagnetic
activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jun 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 13
Jun 22
Jul 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jun 5 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values
18 Jun 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 15 June were
mostly near predicted monthly values. MUFs are expected to be
mostly near predicted monthly values on UT days 16-18 June. Some
mild MUF depressions may be observed on UT day 16 June due to
recent geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jun
Speed: 365 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 156000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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