[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 June 21 issued 2330 UT on 14 Jun 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 15 09:30:07 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JUNE 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 15 JUNE - 17 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jun: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jun 16 Jun 17 Jun
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 14 June. Currently
there are two numbered regions on the visible disk, AR 2832 and
AR 2833. There was a small filament eruption, approximately 5
degrees long, visible in H-alpha and SDO images around 14/2036
UT near S15E25, however, no CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph images. Solar activity is expected to be very low
to low on UT days 15-17 June. On UT day 14 June, the solar wind
speed followed a decreasing trend from 455 km/s down to 320 km/s.
The IMF (Bt) peaked at 5 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +/-3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be
near background levels initially on UT day 15 June. Then from
mid of the UT day 15 June and through UT day 16 June, the solar
wind speed is expected to be moderately enhanced as a southern
coronal hole with extensions in the low latitude region reaches
geoeffective location on the solar disk. On UT day 17 June the
solar wind speed is expected to start decreasing to background
levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 11110001
Cocos Island 1 01110000
Darwin 1 11110001
Townsville 1 11110001
Learmonth 1 11110010
Alice Springs 2 22110000
Gingin 1 11010001
Canberra 0 00000001
Hobart 0 10010000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 3 22121000
Mawson 7 12232023
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 4301 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jun 20 Initially Quiet then reaching active levels with
chance of minor storms.
16 Jun 15 Unsettled to active with a small chance of an
isolated minor storm
17 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet on UT day 14 June. In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic
conditions were quiet to unsettled. On UT day 15 June, global
geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet initially and
then reach active level with a chance of minor storms. On UT
day 16 June, global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly
unsettled to active with a chance of an isolated minor storm.
The forecasted disturbed conditions are due to coronal hole effects.
Then on UT day 17 June, mostly quiet to unsettled conditions
are expected as coronal hole effects fade. Aurora may be visible
from Tasmania and Coastline of Victoria the local night of 15
and 16 June.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
16 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Some Mild degradations in HF propagation conditions
are possible on UT day 15-16 June due to the expected increase
in geomagnetic activity. Mostly normal HF propagation conditions
are expected on UT day 17 June.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jun 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 13
Jun 22
Jul 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jun 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
17 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 14 June were
mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions
in the Niue Island region during the local day. MUFs are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT day 15 June.
Mild MUF depressions are possible on UT day 16 June due to the
expected increase in geomagnetic activity. Mostly normal HF propagation
conditions are expected on UT day 17 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jun
Speed: 455 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 155000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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