[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 June 21 issued 2330 UT on 13 Jun 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 14 09:30:06 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JUNE 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 14 JUNE - 16 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jun: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jun 15 Jun 16 Jun
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 77/16 77/16 77/16
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 13 June. Currently
there are two numbered regions on the visible disk, AR 2832 and
AR 2833. No satellite coronagraph data are available since 11/1348
UT. Based on data from the ground GONG H-Alpha observations,
no possible CMEs sources were observed. Solar activity is expected
to be very low to low on UT days 14-16 June. On UT day 13 June,
the solar wind speed range was 430-500 km/s. The current solar
wind speed is near 450 km/s. The IMF (Bt) was near its nominal
levels, 3-6 nT. The north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+4/-6 nT; Bz was mostly negative up to 13/0300 UT. The solar
wind speed is expected to return to its nominal levels on 14-15
June. At the end of the UT day 15 June, the solar wind speed
can start increasing as a southern coronal hole with extensions
in the low latitude region reaches geoeffective location on the
solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 22110000
Cocos Island 1 21010000
Darwin 2 22010000
Townsville 3 32110000
Learmonth 3 32110000
Alice Springs 2 21110000
Gingin 3 32110010
Canberra 1 21000000
Hobart 1 22000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 11000000
Casey 5 33210010
Mawson 17 64231102
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 3321 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jun 7 Quiet
15 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
mostly quiet on UT day 13 June. In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic
conditions were at quiet to storm levels; the increase in geomagnetic
activity was observed at the beginning of the UT day due to the
elevated solar wind speed. On UT days 14-15 June, global geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be mostly quiet with possible unsettled
periods. At the end of the UT day 15 June and on 16 June, global
geomagnetic activity may reach active levels with a chance of
minor storm levels due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 14-16 June. Mild degradation is possible at the end
of 15 June and on 16 June due to expected increase in geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jun 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 13
Jun 22
Jul 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jun 15 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jun 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 13 June were
mostly near predicted monthly values. Mostly near predicted monthly
MUFs are expected on 14-16 June. Mild degradation in HF propagation
conditions is possible at the end of 15 June and on 16 June due
to expected increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jun
Speed: 355 km/sec Density: 11.4 p/cc Temp: 83700 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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