[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 June 21 issued 2330 UT on 12 Jun 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 13 09:30:06 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JUNE 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 13 JUNE - 15 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jun: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 77/16 77/16
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 12 June. The only
numbered regions on the visible disk are 2829 (soon rotate on
the farside of the sun) and region 2832 (stable, N15 W40). No
satellite coronagraph imagery was available for the last 24 hours.
Based on data from the ground GONG H-Alpha observational network,
no possible CMEs sources were observed. Solar activity is expected
to be very low to low on UT days 13-15 June. On UT day 12 June,
the solar wind speed was near 350 km/s up till 12/1500 UT, and
from thereon increased to 490 km/s. This enhancement in solar
wind is possibly due to an undetected CME. The current solar
wind speed is near 490 km/s. The IMF (Bt) was mildly enhanced,
it was mostly steady near 9 nT. The north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +8/-8 nT; Bz was mostly negative from 12/0000
UT to 12/0300 UT. The solar wind speed is expected to return
to near background levels today, UT day 13 June and remain near
its background level on UT day 14 June. From UT day 15 June,
the solar wind is expected to enhance as a southern coronal hole
with extensions in the low latitude region reaches geoeffective
location on the solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Jun : A K
Australian Region 5 22122201
Cocos Island 5 22122211
Darwin 4 12122201
Townsville 5 22222201
Learmonth 5 22122211
Alice Springs 4 11222200
Gingin 3 22111110
Canberra 3 12122100
Hobart 2 12112000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jun :
Macquarie Island 1 12001000
Casey 5 32121110
Mawson 21 56321130
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 10 3323 3223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jun 7 Quiet
14 Jun 7 Quiet
15 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian regions were
mostly quiet on UT day 12 June. In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic
conditions were at quiet to minor storm levels due to the moderately
elevated solar wind speed. On UT days 13-14 June, global geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be mostly quiet with possible unsettled
periods. On UT day 15 June, global geomagnetic activity may reach
active levels with a chance of minor storms due to possible arrival
of the coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal
15 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 13-14 June.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jun 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 13
Jun 22
Jul 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values
14 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jun 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 12 June were
mostly near predicted monthly values. Mostly normal HF propagation
conditions are expected on UT days 13-15 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jun
Speed: 337 km/sec Density: 9.3 p/cc Temp: 89600 K Bz: -5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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