[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 June 21 issued 2330 UT on 11 Jun 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 12 09:30:06 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 JUNE 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 12 JUNE - 14 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jun:  77/16


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Jun             13 Jun             14 Jun
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              78/17              77/16

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 11 June. The only 
numbered regions on the visible disk are 2829 (Axx-Alpha; it 
is decaying) and region 2832 (Axx-Alpha). No CMEs directed towards 
the Earth were observed in the available coronagraph images. 
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low on UT days 12-14 
June. On UT day 11 June, the solar wind speed was between 330 
km/s and 360 km/s. The IMF (Bt) was mildly enhanced, it peaked 
at 8 nT. The north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +5/-8 nT; 
Bz was mostly negative from 0000 UT to 1415 UT. The solar wind 
speed is expected to stay near background levels on UT days 12-14 
June.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 11 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22222111
      Cocos Island         3   21112110
      Darwin               4   21122111
      Townsville           5   22222111
      Learmonth            6   22222121
      Alice Springs        5   22222111
      Gingin               8   22232222
      Canberra             5   22222111
      Hobart               7   11233211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jun :
      Macquarie Island    17   02445400
      Casey                5   21112122
      Mawson              27   55423353

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1000 1212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled
13 Jun     7    Quiet
14 Jun     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian regions were 
mostly quiet on UT day 11 June. In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic 
conditions were at quiet to minor storm levels. On UT days 12-14 
June, global geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly 
quiet with possible unsettled periods.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
13 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on UT days 12-14 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Jun    11

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      13
Jun      22
Jul      24

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Jun    10    Near predicted monthly values
13 Jun    10    Near predicted monthly values
14 Jun    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 11 June were 
mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild enhancements 
in the Southern Australian region during the local night. Mostly 
normal HF propagation conditions are expected on UT days 12-14 
June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jun
Speed: 343 km/sec  Density:    7.6 p/cc  Temp:    57500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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