[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 June 21 issued 2330 UT on 17 Jun 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 18 09:30:06 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JUNE 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 18 JUNE - 20 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jun: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jun 19 Jun 20 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 17 June. Currently
there is one numbered region on the visible disk, AR 2833. There
was a DSF in SDO images around 17/09 UT near N15E20. Also a CME
was observed in the Lasco coronagraph images at 17/08 UT. From
the position and direction, this CME looks to be geoeffective
and preliminary analysis shows it may cause a glancing blow early
on UT day 22 June. No other Earth directed CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph images. Solar activity is expected
to be very low on UT days 18-20 June. On UT day 17 June, the
solar wind speed followed a decreasing trend from 570 km/s down
to 500 km/s due to fading coronal hole effects. The IMF (Bt)
peaked at 5 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+/-3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be slightly enhanced
on UT day 18 June due to persistent coronal hole effects. Then
on UT days 19-20 June the solar wind speed is expected to decrease
to background levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 12221100
Cocos Island 2 12101100
Darwin 3 12211101
Townsville 4 12221101
Learmonth 5 22222210
Alice Springs 3 12211100
Gingin 4 22221200
Canberra 4 22320100
Hobart 4 12321100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jun :
Macquarie Island 4 22320000
Casey 8 33222211
Mawson 13 33322243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15 4433 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Jun 7 Mostly quiet with possible unsettled periods
20 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
mostly quiet on UT day 17 June. In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic
conditions were at quiet to unsettled with one active period.
On UT day 18 June, global geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be quiet to unsettled due to fading coronal hole effects.
On UT days 19-20 June, global geomagnetic activity is expected
to be mostly quiet.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Jun Normal Normal Normal
20 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 18-20 June.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jun 19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 13
Jun 22
Jul 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jun 20 Near predicted monthly values
19 Jun 20 Near predicted monthly values
20 Jun 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 17 June were
mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild MUF depressions
in the Southern Australian region during the local day. There
were also some enhancements in the Southern Australian region
during the local night and in the Niue Island region after local
dawn. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
on UT days 18-20 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jun
Speed: 572 km/sec Density: 8.0 p/cc Temp: 448000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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