[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 June 21 issued 2330 UT on 02 Jun 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 3 09:30:07 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JUNE 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 03 JUNE - 05 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jun: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 2 June. There
are now two spotted regions on the visible disk AR2827 (Cai-Beta)
and AR2829 (Cro-Beta). Other numbered regions are 2825 and 2828.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
images. There was a DSF around 2/2000 UT near S25E45; further
analysis is required when more coronagraph data become available.
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low on UT days 3-5
June. On UT day 2 June, the solar wind speed was near background
levels at 290 km/s when it suddenly jumped up to 330 km/s at
1230 UT with the corresponding increase in density and IMF. This
weak shock is most likely a glancing blow from the 28 May CME.
The IMF (Bt) peaked at 7 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +2/-4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to
be near background levels initially and then elevated to slightly
or moderately enhanced levels on UT days 3-5 June due to equatorial
coronal holes moving into geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 00002110
Cocos Island 1 00002010
Darwin 2 00002111
Townsville 2 01002111
Learmonth 3 01003110
Alice Springs 2 00002111
Gingin 2 00003110
Canberra 1 00002200
Hobart 1 00002200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jun :
Macquarie Island 1 00002100
Casey 3 11102211
Mawson 7 11103233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jun :
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 1000 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jun 10 Quiet to unsettled with possible active periods
04 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Jun 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet on UT day 2 June. In the Antarctic region, mostly quiet
levels were observed. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be mostly quiet at the beginning of the UT day 3 June; then
unsettled and active periods may be observed due to equatorial
coronal holes. On UT days 4-5 June, quiet to unsettled conditions
are expected. In the SWS magnetometer data for 02 Jun, a weak
(10 nT) impulse was observed at 1333 UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 3-5 June. Some possible mild degradations may occur
on UT days 3-4 June due to expected increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jun 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 13
Jun 22
Jul 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jun 5 Near predicted monthly values
04 Jun 5 Near predicted monthly values
05 Jun 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 2 June were
mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions
during the local day. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted
monthly values on UT days 3-5 June. Some mild MUF depressions
are possible on UT day 4 June due to the expected increase in
geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jun
Speed: 304 km/sec Density: 6.1 p/cc Temp: 21300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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