[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 June 21 issued 2330 UT on 03 Jun 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 4 09:30:08 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JUNE 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 04 JUNE - 06 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jun: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 3 June. There
are two spotted regions on the visible disk AR2827 (Csi-Beta)
and AR2829 (Cao-Beta). No Earth directed CMEs were observed in
the available coronagraph images. Solar activity is expected
to be very low to low on UT days 4-6 June. On UT day 3 June,
the solar wind speed was near background levels between 285 km/s
and 315 km/s. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 12 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +6/-7 nT. The Bz component was mostly
southwards during 4-14 UT. The solar wind speed is expected to
be near background levels initially and then possibly elevated
to slightly enhanced levels on UT days 4-6 June due to small
equatorial coronal holes moving into geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 22222100
Cocos Island 3 12111200
Darwin 4 22212100
Townsville 5 22222101
Learmonth 4 22222100
Alice Springs 3 22112100
Gingin 4 12212200
Canberra 3 11122100
Hobart 4 11223100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jun :
Macquarie Island 7 00343100
Casey 5 12213200
Mawson 7 13233200
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 118 (Major storm)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 0110 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Jun 7 Quiet
06 Jun 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet on UT day 3 June. In the Antarctic region, quiet to unsettled
levels with one active period were observed. Global geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled on UT day 4
June. Then mostly quiet conditions are expected on UT days 5-6
June. Unsettled periods may be observed due to small equatorial
coronal holes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
05 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
06 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 4-6 June. Some mild degradations may be observed.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jun 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 13
Jun 22
Jul 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jun 15 Near predicted monthly values
05 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values
06 Jun 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 3 June were
mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions
in the Northern Australian region during the local day. There
were also some enhancements in the Southern Australian region
during the local night. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted
monthly values on UT days 4-6 June. Some mild MUF depressions
may be observed due to small equatorial coronal holes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jun
Speed: 293 km/sec Density: 11.6 p/cc Temp: 27400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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