[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 June 21 issued 2330 UT on 01 Jun 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 2 09:30:06 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JUNE 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 02 JUNE - 04 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jun: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jun 03 Jun 04 Jun
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 1 June with a C1.7
flare at 0430 UT from region 2827 (Cai-Beta). The only other
numbered regions on the visible disk are 2828 and 2825. No Earth
directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images.
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low on UT days 2-4
June. On UT day 1 June, the solar wind speed decreased from 330
km/s to 290 km/s. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 3 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +1/-2 nT. The solar wind speed is
expected to be near background levels initially and then elevated
to slightly or moderately enhanced levels on UT days 2-3 June
due to an equatorial coronal hole and possible glancing blow
from the 28 May CME. Then on UT day 4 June the solar wind speed
is expected to start returning to background levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Jun : A K
Australian Region 0 00100000
Cocos Island 0 00000000
Darwin 0 01100000
Townsville 0 01100000
Learmonth 1 01201000
Alice Springs 0 00100000
Gingin 0 00000000
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 00001000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 2 12101000
Mawson 5 21100014
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jun :
Learmonth 5 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2110 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jun 15 Mostly quiet to unsettled with possible active
periods
03 Jun 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled with possible active
periods
04 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet on UT day 1 June. In the Antarctic region, mostly quiet
levels were observed. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be mostly quiet at the beginning of the UT day 2 June; then
it may increase to unsettled and active levels due to an equatorial
coronal hole and a small chance of a glancing blow from the 28
May CME. Active periods are also possible on UT day 3 June. Mostly
quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 4 June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
03 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
04 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 2-4 June. Some possible mild degradations may occur
on UT days 2-3 June due to expected increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jun 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 13
Jun 22
Jul 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values
03 Jun 5 Near predicted monthly values
04 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 1 June were
mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions
during the local day. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted
monthly values on UT days 2-4 June. Some mild MUF depressions
are possible on 3 June due to the expected increase in geomagnetic
activity on 2 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 May
Speed: 382 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 55200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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