[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 May 21 issued 2330 UT on 31 May 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 1 09:30:07 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 MAY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 01 JUNE - 03 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 May: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 31 May with a
series of B-class flares from region 2827 (Cai-BetaGamma). The
only other numbered regions on the visible disk are 2828 and
2825. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
images. Solar activity is expected to be very low to low on UT
days 1-3 June. On UT day 31 May, the solar wind speed decreased
from slightly enhanced (420 km/s) to near background levels (320
km/s). The IMF (Bt) peaked at 4 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +1/-2 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to
be near background levels initially and then possibly enhanced
on UT days 1-2 June due to an expected glancing blow from the
28/2313 UT CME. Then an equatorial coronal hole is expected to
become geoeffective from late on UT day 2 June through UT day
3 June, elevating the solar wind speed to moderately enhanced
levels.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 May : A K
Australian Region 1 01100100
Cocos Island 0 00100100
Darwin 1 11100100
Townsville 1 11100101
Learmonth 2 11210100
Alice Springs 0 01100000
Gingin 0 00000100
Canberra 0 01000000
Hobart 0 01010000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 2 12211000
Mawson 5 42201000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 May :
Learmonth 3 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 May : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 1111 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
02 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
03 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet on UT day 31 May. In the Antarctic region, mostly quiet
levels were observed. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be mostly quiet at the beginning of the UT day 1 June; then
it may increase to unsettled and active levels due to a possible
glancing blow from the 28 May CME. Active periods are also possible
on UT day 2 June. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected
on 3 June.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions with some possible
mild degradations are expected on UT days 1-2 June due to expected
increase in geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 May 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 12
May 21
Jun 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jun 15 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jun 15 Near predicted monthly values
03 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 31 May were
mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions
in the Northern Australian and Niue Island regions during the
local day. There were also some mild enhancements in the Southern
Australian region during the local night. MUFs are expected to
be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT days 1-3 June.
Some mild MUF depressions are possible on 3 June due to the expected
increase in geomagnetic activity on 1-2 June.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 May
Speed: 463 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 113000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list