[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 July 21 issued 2330 UT on 14 Jul 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 15 09:30:06 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JULY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JULY - 17 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jul: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jul 16 Jul 17 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 14 July. Currently
there are three numbered regions on the visible disk: AR 2841
(S23W03), AR 2842 (N28E25) and AR 2843 (S16W42). There were no
Earth directed CMEs in the available coronagraph images. Solar
activity is expected to be very low on UT days 15-17 July. On
14 July, the solar wind speed was between 315 km/s and 390 km/s.
The IMF (Bt) peaked at 13 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +6/-11 nT. The IMF Bz component was mostly southwards
during 0830-1053 UT and 1238-2104 UT. The HSS from the Southern
Polar coronal hole with extension down to low latitudes seems
to have passed largely southwards of Earth, so the disturbance
was much less than last rotation 27 days ago. The solar wind
speed is expected to be light on UT day 15 July due to fading
coronal hole effects. Then on UT days 16-17 July the solar wind
speed is expected to be near background levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jul: Quiet to active
Estimated Indices 14 Jul : A K
Australian Region 9 01123432
Cocos Island 7 01122332
Darwin 8 11123332
Townsville 11 11133432
Learmonth 11 01233432
Alice Springs 9 01123432
Gingin 10 01122442
Canberra 9 00123432
Hobart 9 01123432
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jul :
Macquarie Island 14 00124542
Casey 6 12221222
Mawson 25 22243356
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 5 3101 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Jul 7 Mostly quiet
17 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian were quiet
to active on UT day 14 July. In the Antarctic region, quiet to
active levels with two storm periods were observed. Global geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled on UT day 15
July due to fading coronal hole effects and then mostly quiet
on UT days 16-17 July. In the SWS magnetometer data for 14 Jul,
a weak (8nT) impulse was observed at 1006UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 15-17 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jul 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 13
Jul 23
Aug 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jul 15 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jul 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 14 July were
mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions.
There were also some MUF enhancements in the Southern Australian
region during the local night. MUFs in the Australian region
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT
days 15-17 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jul
Speed: 334 km/sec Density: 6.8 p/cc Temp: 205000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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