[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 July 21 issued 2330 UT on 15 Jul 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 16 09:30:06 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JULY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JULY - 18 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jul:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Jul             17 Jul             18 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    74/11              76/14              74/11

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 15 July. Currently 
there are three numbered regions on the visible disk: AR 2841 
(S23W16), AR 2842 (N28E13) and AR 2843 (S16W55). Region 2842 
is stable and region 2843 is decaying but produced two medium 
strength B-class flares. A DSF was observed in H-alpha and SDO 
images near N18E30 around 15/16 UT. There was a CME towards the 
northeast in both Lasco and Stereo-A images at 15/0836 UT, but 
it is unlikely to have an Earth directed component. There were 
no other CMEs observed in the available coronagraph images. Solar 
activity is expected to be very low on UT days 16-18 July. On 
15 July, the solar wind speed followed an increasing trend from 
360 km/s up to 493 km/s, due to the HSS from a Southern Polar 
coronal hole with extension down to low latitudes. The IMF (Bt) 
peaked at 9 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was 
+7/-6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be slightly enhanced 
on UT day 16 July. Then on UT days 17-18 July the solar wind 
speed is expected to be near background levels.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jul: Mostly quiet

Estimated Indices 15 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   12222221
      Cocos Island         5   12122221
      Darwin               5   12222121
      Townsville           6   13222121
      Learmonth            6   12222222
      Alice Springs        6   12222221
      Gingin               7   12222232
      Canberra             6   13221221
      Hobart               6   12222221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     8   13333110
      Casey               12   22222252
      Mawson              33   35344256

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             13   1112 3443     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled
17 Jul     7    Mostly quiet
18 Jul     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian were mostly 
quiet on UT day 15 July. In the Antarctic region, quiet to minor 
storm levels were observed. Global geomagnetic conditions are 
expected to be quiet to unsettled on UT day 16 July due to fading 
coronal hole effects and then mostly quiet on UT days 17-18 July.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on UT days 16-18 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Jul    18

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      13
Jul      23
Aug      26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Jul    15    Near predicted monthly values
17 Jul    10    Near predicted monthly values
18 Jul    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 15 July were 
mostly near predicted monthly values. There were some MUF enhancements 
in the Southern Australian region during the local night. Some 
sporadic E was observed at Hobart, Learmonth, Townsville and 
Darwin stations during 3-6 UT. MUFs in the Australian region 
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT 
days 16-18 July.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jul
Speed: 359 km/sec  Density:   10.7 p/cc  Temp:    61100 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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