[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 July 21 issued 2330 UT on 13 Jul 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 14 09:30:06 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JULY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JULY - 16 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jul: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jul 15 Jul 16 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 13 July. Currently
there are three numbered regions on the visible disk: AR 2839
(N18W78), AR 2841 (S23E10), and AR2842 (N28E37). A large unstable
filament has appeared in the northeast quadrant near N25E60.
There was a weak slow eastward CME in Lasco images around 13/05
UT and preliminary analysis shows it is unlikely to impact Earth.
There was another CME towards the southwest observed in Lasco
images around 13/16 UT. This CME appears to be from the far side
of the Sun and is unlikely to be geoeffective. Also there was
an eastward CME observed in Stereo-A coronagraph images around
13/18 UT, that is unlikely to have an Earth directed component.
Solar activity is expected to be very low on UT days 14-16 July.
On 13 July, the solar wind speed was between 310 km/s and 370
km/s. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 9 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +3/-4 nT. The solar wind speed may increase to
moderately enhanced levels on UT days 14-15 July, due to a large
Southern Polar coronal hole with extension down to low latitudes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 11010000
Cocos Island 1 11010000
Darwin 1 11011000
Townsville 1 11111000
Learmonth 2 21010010
Alice Springs 0 01010000
Gingin 0 10000010
Canberra 0 11000000
Hobart 1 11001000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00001000
Casey 2 22000011
Mawson 19 53221045
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 2111 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jul 13 Quiet to active
15 Jul 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled
16 Jul 8 Mostly quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian were quiet
on UT day 13 July. In the Antarctic region, quiet to active levels
with two minor storm periods were observed. Global geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be quiet to active on UT day 14 July
and then mostly quiet to unsettled on UT day 15 July, due to
a large Southern Polar coronal hole with extension down to low
latitudes. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected on
UT day 16 July as coronal hole effects fade.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 14-16 July. Some mild degradations in HF propagation
conditions are possible mainly during local daylight hours on
UT days 14-15 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jul 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 13
Jul 23
Aug 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
15 Jul 5 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jul 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 13 July were
mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions
in the Cocos Island region. There were also some MUF enhancements
in the Southern Australian region during the local night. MUFs
in the Australian region are expected to be mostly near predicted
monthly values on UT days 14-16 July. Some mild MUF depressions
are possible on UT days 14-15 July, due to the expected increase
in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jul
Speed: 315 km/sec Density: 15.3 p/cc Temp: 35100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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