[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 July 21 issued 2330 UT on 12 Jul 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 13 09:30:07 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JULY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JULY - 15 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jul: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jul 14 Jul 15 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 12 July. Currently
there are three numbered regions on the visible disk: AR 2839
(N18W64), AR 2841 (S19E18), and AR2842 (N23E52). There was a
CME towards the northeast observed in Lasco images around 12/0636
UT, that is unlikely to have an Earth directed component. Also
there was another westward CME observed in Lasco coronagraph
images around 12/0724 UT. This CME appears to have been produced
from a region just beyond the northwest limb on SDO images and
is unlikely to be geoeffective. Solar activity is expected to
be very low on UT days 13-15 July. On 12 July, the solar wind
speed followed an increasing trend from 305 km/s up to 345 km/s.
The IMF (Bt) peaked at 10 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +/-6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to increase
to moderately enhanced levels on UT days 13-14 July and stay
at slightly enhanced levels on UT day 15 July, due to a large
Southern Polar coronal hole with extension down to low latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jul: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 12 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 11111321
Cocos Island 4 11111311
Darwin 4 10111311
Townsville 5 11111321
Learmonth 7 -3211---
Alice Springs 4 01111321
Gingin 4 11201320
Canberra 4 00111321
Hobart 4 00111321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jul :
Macquarie Island 2 10000310
Casey 6 21111322
Mawson 9 41212322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1000 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jul 17 Quiet to active with a chance of a minor storm
14 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
15 Jul 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian were quiet
to unsettled on UT day 12 July. In the Antarctic region quiet
to active levels were observed. Global geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be quiet to active with a chance of a minor storm
on UT day 13 July and then mostly unsettled to active on UT day
14 July, due to a large southern Polar coronal hole with extension
down to low latitudes. Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic
conditions are expected on UT day 15 July as coronal hole effects
fade.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
14 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions with some possible
mild degradations are expected on UT days 13-15 July, due to
the expected rise in geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jul 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 13
Jul 23
Aug 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
14 Jul 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
15 Jul 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 12 July were
mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions
during the local day. In the Cocos Island region, MUFs were mostly
near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions during
the local night. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to
be mostly near predicted monthly values with some possible mild
depressions on UT days 13-15 July, due to the expected increase
in geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jul
Speed: 350 km/sec Density: 8.5 p/cc Temp: 26600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list