[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 July 21 issued 2341 UT on 03 Jul 2021
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 4 09:41:20 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JULY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JULY - 06 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jul: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1/-- 1429UT probable all South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jul: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 94/40 92/37 92/37
COMMENT: Solar activity was high on UT day 03 July. Region 2838(NW
limb) produced several C flares, two M flares at 0717 UT and
1702UT and an X1.5 flare at 1429UT, associated with SWFs and
a minor increase in the proton flux(> than 10 Mev) following
the X class flare. Three impulsive CMEs were observed in limited
Lasco coronagraph images around 3/0400UT, 3/0800UT and 3/1448UT
in association with the abovementioned flares, unlikely to have
any earth directed component. Small filaments eruptions also
observed in NW and SW quadrants, further imagery is required
for any associated CMEs. Currently there are four numbered regions
on the visible disk with region 2835 the largest,retained a beta-Gamma
magnetic class but remained relatively quiet. All other regions
remained stable and quiet. Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate on UT days 04-06 July with a chance of an X-class
flare on 04 July. On 03 July, the solar wind speed remained enhanced,
varied between 370-500 km/s. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 5 nT and
the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +/-2 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to be slightly to moderately enhanced
on UT days 04-06 July due to weak coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11210000
Cocos Island 0 01100000
Darwin 1 11200000
Townsville 2 11210000
Learmonth 2 02210000
Alice Springs 1 01200000
Gingin 2 01210010
Canberra 1 10210000
Hobart 2 11220000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jul :
Macquarie Island 1 00220000
Casey 2 22110010
Mawson 7 33321110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1111 1232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Jul 7 Mostly quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet on UT day 03 July. In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic
conditions were quiet to unsettled. Global geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be quiet to unsettled on UT days 04-06 July due
to weak coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal
05 Jul Normal Normal Normal
06 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 04-06 July with possible SWFs.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jul 19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 13
Jul 23
Aug 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jul 20 Near predicted monthly values
05 Jul 20 Near predicted monthly values
06 Jul 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 20 was issued on 3
July and is current for 4 Jul only. MUFs in the Australian region
on UT day 03 July were mostly near predicted monthly values with
some enhancements during the local night in the Southern Australian
region. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values on UT days 04-06 July with a chance of SWFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jul
Speed: 466 km/sec Density: 6.2 p/cc Temp: 237000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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