[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 July 21 issued 2338 UT on 02 Jul 2021

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 3 09:38:38 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JULY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JULY - 05 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jul:  95/41


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Jul             04 Jul             05 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    94/40              94/40              94/40

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 02 July with a 
series of B-class flares mainly from region 2835. Currently there 
are three numbered regions on the visible disk: AR 2835 (S19W29), 
AR 2836 (S29W31) and AR 2837 (N18E17). A DSF was observed in 
H-alpha images starting 02/14UT near(N20W35). There was a CME 
observed in Lasco coronagraph images around 2/1536UT, that could 
be associated with the DSF but further analysis is required when 
coronagraph images become available. No other significant CMEs 
were observed in the available coronagraph images up to 02/1648UT. 
Solar activity is expected to be low on UT days 03-05 July with 
a slight chance of an M-class flare. On 02 July, the solar wind 
speed remained enhanced, varied between 420-500 km/s. The IMF 
(Bt) peaked at 8 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range 
was +3/-4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be slightly 
to moderately enhanced on UT days 03-05 July due to weak coronal 
hole effects and possible minor CME effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 02 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   01110101
      Cocos Island         1   01110100
      Darwin               2   11110101
      Townsville           2   11111101
      Learmonth            3   02210200
      Alice Springs        1   01100101
      Gingin               2   01110211
      Canberra             0   00000101
      Hobart               0   00000101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     1   00110100
      Casey                4   12211111
      Mawson              12   42222224

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart              11   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   4310 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Jul    15    Quiet to Unsettled with possible active periods.
04 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled
05 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
quiet on UT day 02 July. In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic 
conditions were quiet to active. Global geomagnetic conditions 
are expected to be quiet to unsettled on UT days 03-05 July due 
to weak coronal hole effects. Active periods may be observed 
on 03 July if 29 June CME arrives.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on UT days 03-05 July.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Jul    17

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      13
Jul      23
Aug      26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Jul    20    Near predicted monthly values
04 Jul    20    Near predicted monthly values
05 Jul    20    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 02 July were 
mostly near predicted monthly values with some enhancements during 
the local night in the Southern Australian region. MUFs are expected 
to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT days 03-05 July.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.8E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jul
Speed: 484 km/sec  Density:    9.2 p/cc  Temp:   360000 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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