[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 July 21 issued 2330 UT on 01 Jul 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 2 09:30:07 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JULY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JULY - 04 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jul: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jul 03 Jul 04 Jul
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 94/40 94/40 94/40
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 01 July with a
series of B-class flares mainly from region 2835. Currently there
are three numbered regions on the visible disk: AR 2835 (S19W15),
AR 2836 (S29W18) and AR 2837 (N17E29). There were no Earth directed
CMEs observed in the available coronagraph images during the
last 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to be very low to low
on UT days 02-04 July. On 01 July, the solar wind speed followed
a decreasing trend from 510 km/s down to 435 km/s due to fading
coronal hole effects. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 13 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +11/-8 nT. A CME related to the
dimming at 29/5:14 UT and first observed at 29/06:36 UT, may
arrive late on UT day 02 or early on 03 July. The confidence
for it's arrival is low. The solar wind speed is expected to
be slightly to moderately enhanced on UT days 02-03 July and
then slightly enhanced on UT day 04 July, due to coronal hole
effects and possible minor CME effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 33210000
Cocos Island 3 22210000
Darwin 5 33210011
Townsville 7 43210011
Learmonth 4 23210000
Alice Springs 5 33210000
Gingin 3 32200000
Canberra 3 32100000
Hobart 3 32100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jul :
Macquarie Island 3 32000100
Casey 5 33200011
Mawson 8 44211100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14 1233 2344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Jul 15 Quiet to unsettled, some active periods possible
04 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet to unsettled with one active period on UT day 01 July.
In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic conditions were quiet to
unsettled with two active periods. Global geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled on UT days 02-04
July due to coronal hole effects and possible minor CME effects.
If the CME related to the dimming at 29/5:14 UT and first observed
at 29/06:36 UT, does arrive at the earth, some active periods
may also be observed late on UT day 02 and/or early on 03 July.
The confidence in the arrival of this CME is low.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal
03 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 02-04 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jul 27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 13
Jul 23
Aug 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jul 20 Near predicted monthly values
03 Jul 15 Near predicted monthly values
04 Jul 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 01 July were
mostly near predicted monthly values with some enhancements during
the local night in the Southern Australian region. MUFs are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT days 02-04 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jun
Speed: 377 km/sec Density: 12.9 p/cc Temp: 99800 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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