[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 July 21 issued 2330 UT on 04 Jul 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 5 09:30:08 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JULY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JULY - 07 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jul:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/--    0509UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jul:  91/36


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Jul             06 Jul             07 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              85/27

COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate on UT day 04 July. Region 
2838 (NW limb) produced an M1.5 flare at 0509 UT and two C2 flares 
at 0149 U and 0336 UT. Newly numbered region 2839 produced a 
C1.3 flare at 0757 UT and region 2835 produced a C1.7 flare at 
1813 UT. Currently there are four numbered regions on the visible 
disk: AR 2835 (S19W56), AR 2836 (S29W57, AR 2837 (N18W10) and 
AR 2839 (N18E39). AR 2835 (S19W56)remained the largest and most 
complex, decreased in area and magnetic complexity. All other 
regions remained relatively stable. There was a narrow westward 
CME observed in Lasco images at 04/06 UT associated with the 
M1.5 flare, but it is unlikely to be geoeffective. There were 
no other CMEs observed in the available coronagraph images up 
to 1748 UT. However, there are unstable filaments near S25W10 
and S28W35 that are being monitored because if they produce a 
CME it could be geoeffective. Solar activity is expected to be 
low to moderate on UT days 05-06 July and then low on UT day 
07 July. On 04 July, the solar wind speed followed a decreasing 
trend from 380 km/s down to 315 km/s. The IMF (Bt) peaked at 
4 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +/-2 nT. 
The solar wind speed is expected to be near background levels 
on UT days 05-07 July. The solar wind speed may be slightly enhanced 
on UT day 07 July due to minor effects from the 02 July CME.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 04 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   11000000
      Cocos Island         1   11100000
      Darwin               0   11000000
      Townsville           2   12100001
      Learmonth            0   11000000
      Alice Springs        0   01100000
      Gingin               0   01000000
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               0   00000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                1   11100000
      Mawson               5   32100302

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   2121 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled
06 Jul     7    Quiet
07 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
quiet on UT day 04 July. In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic 
conditions were quiet to unsettled. Global geomagnetic conditions 
are expected to be mostly quiet on UT days 05-07 July. Unsettled 
conditions may be observed on UT day 07 July due to minor effects 
from the 02 July CME.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on UT days 05-07 July with a chance of a short wave fadeout.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Jul    15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      13
Jul      23
Aug      26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Jul    20    Near predicted monthly values
06 Jul    20    Near predicted monthly values
07 Jul    20    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 04 July were 
mostly near predicted monthly values. MUFs are expected to be 
mostly near predicted monthly values on UT days 05-07 July with 
a chance of a short wave fadeout.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.9E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jul
Speed: 458 km/sec  Density:    4.4 p/cc  Temp:   201000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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