[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 January 21 issued 2333 UT on 26 Jan 2021

Wed Jan 27 10:33:08 EST 2021

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JANUARY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JANUARY - 29 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jan:  76/14

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Jan             28 Jan             29 Jan
Activity     Very low to low    Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    76/14              74/11              74/11

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 26 January with 
no flares. AR2799 is currently located near the west limb and 
will soon rotate to the far-side of the sun.  There are two other 
numbered regions on the visible solar disc, AR2798 and AR2797. 
Solar activity is expected to be very low over the next three 
UT days, 27 to 29 January. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed 
in the available satellite images. On 26 January, the solar wind 
speed was in the range of 500 km/s - 600 km/s and on a declining 
trend in general. This is in response to high speed streams from 
a small negative polarity equatorial coronal hole. The coronal 
effects are expected to wane from today. The total IMF (Bt) peaked 
to 10 nT at 26/0000 UT. Thereafter declined to 5 nT and remained 
steady at 5 nT. The Bz range was +7/-9 nT, with two significant 
periods of southward Bz; from 26/0000 UT to 26/0500 UT and from 
26/1600 UT to 26/1900.   The solar wind speed is expected to 
begin to gradually wane from today, 27 January, as the coronal 
hole effects fade.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 26 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   33123322
      Cocos Island         6   32012311
      Darwin               8   33023221
      Townsville           9   33123222
      Learmonth           12   43123322
      Alice Springs        9   33023321
      Gingin              13   43123422
      Canberra             8   33122221
      Hobart               8   33122222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jan :
      Macquarie Island    16   44143331
      Casey               26   56423332
      Mawson              40   55423565

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              14   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             14   1133 2225     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Jan     5    Quiet
28 Jan     5    Quiet
29 Jan     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were 
observed in the Australian region on UT day 26 January. Mostly 
unsettled to minor storms levels were observed in the Antarctic 
region. These disturbed periods were in response to the moderately 
elevated solar wind speed and the periods of persistent IMF Bz 
condition associated with the coronal hole.  Global geomagnetic 
activity is expected to be mostly quiet on UT day 27 - 29 January. 
Isolated unsettled periods are possible on UT day 27 January, 
in response to the coronal hole effect.  

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: On UT day 26 January, MUFs were mostly near predicted 
monthly values, with depressed conditions in the high latitude 
region. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly 
values on UT days 27 to 29 January.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
26 Jan    -3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      11
Jan      9
Feb      11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Jan     0    Near predicted monthly values
28 Jan     0    Near predicted monthly values
29 Jan     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 26 January, MUFs in the Australian region 
were near predicted monthly levels, with some minor depressions 
over the Cocos Island and Southern Australian regions. Sporadic 
E was observed, strong at times. MUFs in the Australian region 
are expected to be near predicted monthly values on 27 to 29 
January. Sporadic E occurrences are likely.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jan
Speed: 493 km/sec  Density:    7.9 p/cc  Temp:   213000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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